Thursday, October 10, the russian Aerospace Forces lost a Su-34 tactical bomber, according to russian military blogger Fighterbomber. Officials neither from russian nor Ukrainian side have not commented on this alleged episode in any way.
Soon afterward, multiple russian sources claimed that the reason why this Su-34 was lost is because it was shot down by a Ukrainian F-16 multirole fighter jet. Before any credible details or statements appeared to confirm or refute the information, the news had already resonated through the media.
Read more: Ukrainian Air Force Allegedly Shot Down russian Su-34 Using F-16 – ISW
What added fuel to the fire is the sighting of AIM-9X Block II air-to-air missiles in an unrelated video by the official Ukrainian Air Force account, dedicated to the Day of Logistics Forces.
This made some Western analysts wonder if an F-16 could have used an AIM-9X to take the enemy aircraft down. However, Defense Express affirms that this assumption is nonsense, and here's why.
To begin with, the message about a Su-34 elimination should be taken into account with reasonable caution and skepticism until official confirmations. For a reminder, the famous "Bryansk Massacre" — which occurred in May 2023, when the russian forces lost one Su-34 and one Su-35, two rare MI-8MTPR-1 and a Mi-8 helicopters — was initially reported by the russians as a friendly fire of air defense units while Ukraine remained silent. Only a few months later, the first indications appeared that it was, in fact, a Ukrainian operation, officially confirmed in November of that year.
That is to say why the Ukrainian military officials don't comment on the matter of the Su-34 downing. In itself, the loss of such aircraft is a mysterious and rare occurrence: only 34 have been confirmed lost on the russian side since the outbreak of the larger war, with over half of the downings recorded during the first year of the war, in 2022; more recent cases are eliminations on the ground as a result of Ukraine's long-range strikes on russian airfields.
Now about the AIM-9X missile itself. The AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder is a weapon for close-range engagements, operating at maximum distances 20 to 40 kilometers (12.5–25 miles) to the target when used from an aircraft and up to 20 kilometers in a surface launch mode from a NASAMS air defense system.
Very rare footage American AIM-9X Sidewinder missile being fired from Ukrainian NASAMS air defence system. pic.twitter.com/QHzTPXMMFN — Clash Report (@clashreport) May 28, 2024
Accordingly, the main conclusion is, the very option that the russian Su-34 could be shot down by an AIM-9X Block II missile at such a dangerously short range is unrealistic as russian fighters, usually escorting the bomber aircraft, have air-to-air weapons operating at far greater ranges, for example, a russian Su-35 can detect enemy 300 km away and engage from 120 km afar. An F-16 approaching a Su-34 close enough to use a Sidewinder missile is a big risk.
At the same time, the mentioned footage showcasing the AIM-9X Block II containers has a value from a different perspective: as the first official confirmation that Ukraine does have these missiles at its disposal, if needed. Until this publication, there were only a few hints in the public domain that indicated the presence of this weapon in Ukrainian forces. Though it's more relevant for the NASAMS ground-based system, as Sidewinder provides a cost-effective alternative to the pricey AIM-120 effectors.
Read more: F-16 Shields Ukraine From Cruise Missiles Better Than Any Ground-Stationed Air Defense System Could
