Currently, the information that the U.S. may include AGM-154 JSOW glide bombs in the next $325 million aid package to Ukraine remains unconfirmed. Furthermore, questions arise about the practicality of transferring JSOWs, as their effective range when launched from a low-altitude climb is only 40 km.
However, this could actually be part of a strategic plan by Washington to avoid escalating the war in Ukraine or crossing the "red lines" the U.S. has set for itself in response to russia’s nuclear threats. There's a method for converting the AGM-154 JSOW into a full-fledged cruise missile, and this method has been explored for quite some time.
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In the mid-2000s, Raytheon, the developer of the JSOW, began work on the JSOW-ER (Extended Range) variant. By adding a small Pratt & Whitney TJ-150 jet engine — similar to the one used in the ADM-160 MALD decoy drone — the baseline glide bomb was transformed into a cruise missile with an operational range of up to 550 km. The JSOW-ER underwent flight tests in 2009, and Raytheon positioned it as a cost-effective option for long-range strikes, priced at $350,000 per unit.
However, the project was never fully implemented due to competition with Lockheed Martin’s AGM-158 JASSM cruise missile and the U.S. Air Force's decision to stop procurement of new bombs in 2005 and retire the AGM-154A JSOW in its cluster version in 2008. The Navy continued to work on the project until 2022 before ultimately prioritizing the JASSM-ER, which has a range of over 900 km.
The key takeaway here is that while the JSOW-ER was never mass-produced, the U.S. has a ready-made blueprint for converting the glide bomb into a cruise missile. JSOW is essentially a modular "flying container" that can be adapted with various payloads, from different warheads to additional guidance systems like thermal homing heads.
With this in mind, a cautious hypothesis can be made about Washington's possible intentions — assuming the transfer of JSOWs to Ukraine is confirmed. It’s plausible that Ukraine could receive the standard JSOWs in their glide bomb configuration, possibly even older units decommissioned in 2008. Ukraine might then choose to pursue its own modernization, potentially converting the JSOW into a cruise missile domestically, with the transformation effectively "made in Ukraine." Notably, the TJ-150 engines used in the JSOW-ER are already being 3D printed in the U.S.
Also, this scenario takes into account that the U.S. is currently withholding high-precision topographic maps of russia, which are necessary for guidance systems like TERCOM and DSMAC to function. It’s been reported that the lack of U.S. approval for sharing this data is the main reason why Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles have not been used for deep strikes inside russia. However, if Ukraine were to upgrade the JSOW, it could integrate them with its own AI-powered analogs of DSMAC, which are already successfully employed by Ukrainian long-range attack drones.
While this scenario is purely speculative and based on unconfirmed reports of preparations for JSOW transfers, it represents an innovative and low-profile solution to Washington’s concerns about escalation. A potential JSOW modernization could address both Ukraine's needs and U.S. geopolitical considerations.
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