Ukraine has received an unexpected priority in receiving several types of surface-to-air interceptors for the Patriot air defense system, and the AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles. The decision to grant such priority was announced by John Kirby, United States National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the White House, and was later confirmed by Pentagon Press Secretary Patrick Ryder.
Practically, this means that all contracts for the supply of these missiles are currently on hold until the end of the 2025 fiscal year for all customers other than Taiwan. That is, until October 1, 2025, which is about 16 months of priority treatment for Ukraine. Considering that basically only three type of missiles are involved, the GEM-T, MSE, and AIM-120, all made in the USA, and the fact that production capacity data is public, we can estimate the number of missiles that will be arranged for Ukraine
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As of April 2024, Raytheon declared its current production capacity was making 20 GEM-T missiles per month, i.e. 240 missiles per year. For a reminder, the Guidance Enhanced Missile, also known as the PAC-2 GEM-T is a missile for the Patriot anti-aircraft/anti-missile defense system used to intercept non-ballistic threats within a 160 km range.
On the other hand, the MSE interceptor is designed to engage ballistic threats such as russian Kh-47 Kinzhal air-launched missiles or ground-based weapons like missiles for Iskander-M or S-300/400 systems, all actively used by russian invasion forces for long-range strikes on Ukraine. Manufacturer company Lockheed Martin and the Pentagon estimate the current volume of MSE production to be around 500 missiles per year, that is, about 40 missiles per month. But with investments, Lockheed Martin aims to reach a production rate of 550 units made yearly by 2026.
There are also publicly announced plans for the AIM-120 AMRAAM yearly output. In September 2023, Raytheon's Air & Space Defense Systems division president Paul Ferraro reported that the company typically produced 500-800 missiles a year (40–67 missiles per month), but the ongoing contracts necessitated expanding the capacity up to a maximum of 1,200 missiles per year.
The AIM-120 is the primary air-to-air weapon for the F-16 multirole fighter jet that the Ukrainian Air Force is about to get, and it's also used by the NASAMS ground-based system already at Ukraine's disposal.
Thus, if we apply the present-time production figures to a 16-month forecast, we get a total of 320 GEM-T, 640 MSE, and an approximate 640 to 1,060 AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles. But all these should be divided according to an unknown ratio between Ukraine, Taiwan, and the USA itself — because the priority is granted only above all other foreign customers, not the domestic one.
Still, it's important to mention that since the manufacturers are actively cranking up the lines and investing in production expansion, the resulting number of missiles could be slightly higher. Besides, even this much air defense ammunition should suffice to ensure the protection of Ukrainian skies throughout this priority period.
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