The war in Ukraine has contributed to a significant shift in russia’s relationship with the countries of the former Soviet Union. Russia almost certainly continues to see maintaining its influence in these countries as a foreign policy priority, crucial to domestic security and economic prosperity. Since February 2022, while there are variations between countries, russia’s overall influence in its near neighbours has declined, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
The resources russia has committed in Ukraine and its failure to achieve a military breakthrough have called into question russia’s traditional position as a regional security guarantor. Russia’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty has raised the prospect of a security threat from russia itself. The decline in the russian economy and the risk of secondary sanctions has intensified concerns around economic dependence on russia.
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In response to these trends, states across the former Soviet Union have intensified efforts to diversify their economic, political and security relationships to reduce their dependence on russia. While russia maintains a significant presence, both overt and covert, in the region, the Kremlin's ability to achieve its aims and objectives has almost certainly declined significantly over the past two years.
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