In April 2025, russian territorial gains in Ukraine continued at a significantly decreased rate relative to late 2024, according to the UK Defense Intelligence.
The russian Ground Forces (RGF) highly likely seized approximately 200 sq km of Ukrainian territory in April 2025, an average of approximately 6 sq km per day. This is only a slight increase on the approximately 150 sq km russian forces seized in March 2025, which was the lowest total observed since June 2024.
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Throughout April, the RGF made tactical gains around Pokrovsk, the key Ukrainian logistics hub which supports operations in the Donbas. Pokrovsk has likely remained the priority axis for russia in its campaign but it has been unable to make any notable advances around the city since late 2024.
While russia conducts its Victory Day commemorations on May 9, 2025, for its role in what russia calls the Great Patriotic War, Ukrainian forces highly likely continue to conduct limited kinetic operations in russia's Kursk border region. Ukraine's incursion into Kursk, in response to russia's invasion of Ukraine, is the first time since the Second World War that foreign troops have conducted operations in russian territory.
As Defense Express previously reported, on May 4, 2025, russian President Vladimir Putin stated that since russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, "there has been no need to use those [nuclear] weapons... and I hope they will not be required". He also claimed that "russia alone, in fact, is confronting the entire collective West".
As Defense Express also outlined earlier, pressures on the russian state's ability to finance its planned budget in 2025 will almost certainly increase due to the recent drop in oil prices. Lower oil price expectations have resulted in the Ministry of Finance of russia revising down its forecast for 2025 oil and gas revenues by almost 25 per cent, from 10.94 trillion rubles (USD $135bn) to 8.32 trillion rubles (USD $103bn). Meanwhile, the 2025 budget deficit forecast has increased from 0.5 per cent of GDP to 1.7 per cent of GDP.
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