russia has accumulated at least 2,000 Shahed-type loitering munitions and is likely waiting for sustained freezing temperatures to launch a new wave of mass strikes against Ukraine, according to monitoring groups. Analysts assess that weather conditions are becoming a key factor in the timing of future attacks.
Based on current forecasts, large-scale drone attacks could begin as early as the middle of next week, when temperatures are expected to drop to around –5°C. Such conditions would mark a transition to a phase in which cold itself becomes a force multiplier for strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure.
Read more: Pentagon Brags About Dark Eagle: 3,700km Range, Shahed-Size Warhead, 12 Per Year
Estimates suggest the accumulated stockpile would be sufficient for three to four massed attack waves, with only short operational pauses between them. This pattern would allow russia to maintain constant pressure on Ukrainian air defenses while attempting to overwhelm repair and recovery efforts.
Russian strikes conducted during freezing weather cause significantly greater damage than similar attacks in warmer seasons. Low temperatures complicate emergency repairs, as equipment becomes iced over, materials degrade faster, and technical systems operate less reliably.
Cold weather also increases risks for repair crews, limiting the amount of time personnel can safely work outdoors. This slows restoration efforts and extends outages, particularly at energy and utility facilities exposed to the elements.
As a result, even limited physical damage can have prolonged consequences. Recovery timelines lengthen, secondary failures become more likely, and the cumulative impact of repeated strikes grows over time rather than being quickly contained.
As Defense Express previously reported, on the Donetsk axis, operators of Ukraine's Rarog 427th Unmanned Systems Regiment have successfully halted an enemy assault by striking armored vehicles and key engineering equipment critical to the offensive. The operation disrupted the adversary's attempt to advance toward Ukrainian forces' positions and effectively neutralized the assault group's mobility and protection.
Read more: Ukrainian Drones Destroy russian Tanks, Armored Vehicles, and MTU-20 Bridge Layer in Donetsk Region (Video)
