Previously, we outlined the key insights from an investigation by Dallas, based on leaked russian internal communication documents. Those revealed Moscow's plans for repair and modernization of the Tu-95MS, Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 long-range bomber aircraft, including the costs and quantities.
Here, we would like to follow-up on these facts and put them into a broader perspective. In particular, point out the fact three of the Tu-95MS earmarked for repairs are to be overhauled just 150 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, potentially within the range of weapons available to the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Further down below is a brief assessment of russian plans arming their modernized Tu-22M3M with missiles.
Read more: Leaked Documents Reveal russian Plans For Tu-95MS, Tu-160, and Tu-22M3 Modernizations, With Numbers and Costs
For starters, let's recall the main points. According to the leaked papers, russia wants capital repairs for six of its Tu-95MS bombers, assigned to the 360 Aviation Repair Plant and the TANTK Berieva companies, each asking their own price for the work. Despite servicing the same number of jets — three Tu-95MSs each — the former requested 11.33 billion rubles, or nearly $131.66 mln, while the latter asked almost 16 billion rubles amounting to $184.76 mln.
The discrepancy is evident and could be explained either by purely administrative motives or possibly by different complexity of works. The 360 ARP has only been involved in repairing Tu-95MS before (starting 1995) while the TANTK Berieva has historically also modernized the bomber to the Tu-95MSM standard.
We should also pay attention to the fact that about 50% of the 58-strong Tu-95MS fleet was of the MS-6 modification in 2024, according to The Military Balance study issued by IISS. This variant can carry only six Kh-55SM/Kh-555 missiles in the bomb bay without the option of suspending Kh-101/Kh-102 on external hardpoints, available in later models. Here Defense Express assumes that the Berieva factory could fix this issue by integrating weapon stations on the wings on top of simply repairing those three bombers.
The fact that the TANTK Berieva is located in Taganrog is also notable: it places three high-value targets in immobile state mere 150 km from the border with Ukraine. Albeit difficult, an operation to eliminate them is within the realm of possibility and not unprecedented to boot: Ukrainian forces have successfully destroyed russian long-range aviation before with precision strikes on russian territory.
The value of strategic aircraft for the Kremlin is illustrated in comparison of costs spent on the overhaul of these six Tu-95s with other spendings. Considering that earlier russian Ministry of Defense had estimated the value of a new Tu-160M in 15–16 billion rubles, and building a new Project 22800 Karakurt missile corvette in 1.5 bln rubles, repairs for six bombers are about as expensive as producing a Tu-160M or ten warships armed with Kalibr missiles.
Moving on to the modernized Tu-22M3M bombers, let's recall that this modification stands out from the baseline Tu-22M3 mainly for the presence of a boom for in-flight refueling. However, there are assumptions that the Tu-22M3M will also get improved missile armament: modernized Kh-32 cruise missile and the Kh-50 which is currently in the unknown stage of development.
In late 2023, the leadership of the Kazan Aviation Plant (KAPO) announced plans to produce from a few to 30 modernized Tu-22M3Ms. This makes the mentioned quantity of only two Tu-22M3Ms mentioned in the leaked documents quite surprising.
There are two ways to explain such modest results: either because the stocks of Kh-22/32 missiles are running low, russia scaled down plans for the Tu-22M3 modernization, or they decided to stretch the plans across several more years and start with a small test batch first. Overall, the russian Aerospace Forces have received only two Tu-22M3Ms up to this point: one in 2018 and another in 2023.
Read more: China Considered Buying 36 russian Tu-22M3 Strategic Bombers for $1.5B, Dropped the Deal After 2022
