Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko has evaluated the state of russia's military aircraft industry.
Currently, russia manufactures combat aircraft including the Su-57, Su-35, Su-34, and the Yak-130 combat trainer. Meanwhile, the Su-30 fighters and MiG-29s are mostly focused on repairs and upgrades.
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In 2022, the russian Air and Space Forces received 29 new and upgraded aircraft, including:
- Su-57: 6
- Su-35: 7
- Su-34: 10
- Su-30SM: 4
- Yak-130: 2
For 2023, it was reported that the russian military would acquire 26 new combat aircraft:
- Su-57: 2 (though russian sources claim a batch of 8)
- Su-35: 10
- Su-34: 6
- Su-30SM: 4
- Yak-130: 4
Thus, the russian Armed Forces have been receiving up to 30 combat and combat-training aircraft annually during the full-scale war.
So, what is the status of combat aircraft deliveries to the russian Air Force in 2024, particularly in the first half of the year?
Aircraft Transfers to the russian Air Force in 2024
Su-34
In the first half of 2024, the russian Air Force received four Su-34 frontline fighter-bombers, delivered in two batches of two aircraft each. russian media frequently reported that the Novosibirsk Aviation Plant had transferred 163 Su-34s as of 2024 but did not specify how many were actively in service. Verified records show that the russian Air Force has lost 30 Su-34s since 2022, while unverified reports suggest more than 60 losses. Recently, russian sources have been modifying the flight and registration numbers of aircraft, making it difficult to determine whether new deliveries are being accurately reported or if existing aircraft are being rebranded as new.
Su-35
The Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant named after Y.A. Gagarin delivered four Su-35 multirole fighters in the first half of 2024, also in two batches. The first batch of two Su-35S was delivered on April 12, and the second batch on May 8. As with the Su-34s, the flight numbers on these aircraft were obscured.
Yak-130
On June 10, the Irkutsk Aviation Plant delivered the first batch of Yak-130 combat trainers for 2024. Based on previous transfers, this batch likely included no more than two aircraft. This delivery marks the fifth batch under the contract signed on August 25, 2020, which stipulates the delivery of 25 Yak-130s. The russian Air Force now operates more than 120 Yak-130s in combat-ready condition.
Su-30 and Su-57
Notably, no Su-30SM or Su-57 fighter aircraft were delivered to the russian Armed Forces in the first half of 2024.
In summary, during the first six months of 2024, the russian forces received approximately 10 new combat and combat-training aircraft.
Outlook for the Second Half of 2024
Given the capabilities of the russian military defense industry, it is likely that the second half of 2024 will see the delivery of two to three batches of Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft, each consisting of two units. This would result in a total delivery of approximately 8-10 Su-34s and Su-35s for the year, in line with the recent production capacity of the russian MIC, which generally produces no more than a squadron annually.
Additionally, it is expected that another batch of Yak-130 combat trainers, likely totaling two aircraft, will be delivered. This would bring the annual total to four Yak-130s.
The lack of modernized Su-30SMs in the first half of the year may be due to delays in the modernization process, which relies on the integration of Western-made equipment, such as the French Thales HUD 3022 windscreen indicators.
For the Su-57s, it is anticipated that they will be delivered in two batches, totaling 2-4 aircraft for the year.
In summary, the russian Air Force is projected to receive between 22 and 28 new aircraft of various types in 2024. However, potential discrepancies, such as changes to flight numbers or the reclassification of existing aircraft, could affect the precision of these estimates.
Conclusions
russia's production of tactical aircraft is ongoing but remains limited in scale. These modest production levels are inadequate to fully replace the combat aircraft lost in the conflict with Ukraine.
In recent years, russia's military defense industry has struggled to advance its combat aircraft production capabilities, failing to significantly increase output or expand its range of aircraft types.
For the Ukrainian Defense Forces, while completely destroying these aircraft remains challenging, rendering them non-operational is more feasible. On the other hand, replenishing these aircraft is a significant challenge for russia. Some aircraft models, such as the Su-25 and Su-24, face severe production constraints, making it impossible for russia to replace them effectively.
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