The Ukrainian counteroffensive has put russian forces under pressure in Bakhmut and the south of Ukraine. Despite this, russia’s Western Group of Forces has continued small-scale attacks in the north-east, in the Kupiansk-Lyman sector, and has made some limited local advances, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
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As Ukraine continues to gradually gain ground in the south, russia’s doctrine suggests that it will attempt to regain the initiative by pivoting back to an operational level offensive. Kupiansk-Lyman is one potential area for this.
There is a realistic possibility russia will increase the intensity of its offensive efforts on the Kupiansk-Lyman axis in the next two months, probably with the objective of advancing west to the Oskil River and creating a buffer zone around Luhansk region.
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