Israel's strikes on iran as part of Operation Rising Lion have already eliminated part of the military leadership, top officials of the nuclear program, damaged nuclear facilities, as well as Iran's air defense system. This enables methodical strikes rather than a one-time action.
At the same time, the Israel Defense Forces' list of targets includes iranian plants that produce ballistic missiles. In particular, a fairly successful strike on a facility in the southern city of Shiraz has already been reported. There are also reports of a successful attack on missile facilities in the northern city of Tabriz.
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Israel is now reportedly attacking Iran's Shiraz city. pic.twitter.com/UVV4IbP38G — Clash Report (@clashreport) June 13, 2025
In this context, it is worth recalling the discussions about the potential threat of iran supplying ballistic missiles to russia. At the same time, the same company that manufactures the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar also produces the new Dezful, which has a declared range of 1,000 km and poses a threat to Israel.
Moreover, the destruction of solid fuel production facilities is likely to disrupt the manufacturing of all ballistic missiles, including the Fath-360 and Ababil — both reportedly sought by russia. iran also quickly responded by launching Shahed-136 drones at Israel, highlighting the importance of targeting their production sites. At the same time, russia continues to receive a number of components for its Geran-2 drones from iran.
اولین تصاویر از کارخانه زیر زمینی تولید موشک بالستیک نیروی هوافضای #سپاه pic.twitter.com/u5H5tQg0Oq — خبرگزاری فارس (@FarsNews_Agency) February 7, 2019
In addition, if Israel methodically targets all key Iranian military enterprises, it is likely that this will include facilities involved in explosives production, which means Iranian-made shells for russia could also be affected.
In addition to the direct consequences, there are also indirect ones. They are related to the fact that iran may turn to the Kremlin for urgent assistance. In particular, with regard to air defense systems, the acceleration of deliveries of Su-35 fighters, and other military assistance. There is a high probability that the Kremlin will agree to this in order to support its ally, effectively forcing the enemy to divert resources to a separate task.
At the same time, there are certain disadvantages for Ukraine in this situation. The fact is that iran will try to launch a large-scale retaliatory strike. It may even launch a methodical long-range campaign of strikes. At the same time, it is likely that not only the Israel Defense Forces but also the US Armed Forces will repel it. This means that there will be fewer air-to-air and anti-aircraft missiles. Ukraine has already faced this situation when the US redirected APKWS rockets intended for Ukraine to the Middle East.
Moreover, any escalation in the Middle East, not to mention a war, typically results in rising oil prices. This results in increased revenues for the russian federation, unless measures are taken to stop its shadow fleet.
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