The OSINT research team of Covert Cabal and Jompy recently released a video presenting their own calculations on the number of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) still available in russian military storage.
Their findings are impressive in their own way, suggesting that russia has only 339 rocket launchers left in long-term storage. Specifically, they counted 171 BM-27 Uragan systems, 116 BM-21 Grad systems, and only two Smerch systems.
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The researchers based their estimates on data indicating that the russian military-industrial complex is currently producing 12 to 13 MLRS units per month, with 80% of these being refurbished systems retrieved from long-term storage.
Importantly, the OSINT team also provided their estimates of dormant units at each of the important storage facilities, i.e. how many MLRS of one type or another they could confirm based on open-source data.
At this point, discrepancies in the numbers arise, which Defense Express would like to address. According to the study, 1,135 rocket launchers of all types have been removed from the said facilities since 2022, which implies (perhaps inadvertently) that the russian army initially had around 1,500 units of rocket artillery in storage.
However, according to The Military Balance assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the russian military had far more MLRS at its disposal.
The 2023 edition of The Military Balance reported that as of early 2023, the russian army had 886 MLRS units in active service, the majority of which were 450 BM-21 Grad systems. Additionally, it stated that 3,220 MLRS units of various types were in storage, including 2,000 BM-21 Grad systems, 700 Uragan systems, and even 100 archaic BM-13 Katyusha launchers.
The most recent edition, The Military Balance 2024, indicated that at the beginning of this year, the russian military had 941 MLRS units in active service, marking a modest increase of 55 units. This included 400 BM-21 Grads, 200 Uragans, and 55 TOS-1A Solntsepyok systems (compared to only "some" TOS-1s listed in the 2023 edition).
Also, the 2024 report noted a decrease in storage units, with 2,350 MLRS remaining, down by 870 systems. These included 1,500 BM-21 Grads, 550 Uragans, and the same 100 BM-13s.
Comparing The Military Balance 2024 figures with those from the Covert Cabal team gives an impression that the number of MLRS in russian storage has shrunk by as much as sevenfold in recent years. However, this conclusion is likely inaccurate.
Defense Express believes this decline in visible MLRS units may be partly due to many of russia's rocket artillery units being relocated from specialized storage bases to repair plants or other sites that were not captured in the OSINT team’s calculations, which relied on satellite imagery of specific russian military facilities.
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