Poland appears to be preparing to buy a large batch of American anti-tank guided weapons, roughly 253 FGM-148F Javelin launchers and 2,506 missiles. At face value this purchase could cost up to about $780 million, although the U.S. Department of State approval of the sale does not necessarily mean that final contract figures will match that estimate, the final deal may be cheaper. Even so, this is a substantial investment aimed at strengthening the anti-tank capabilities of Poland's light infantry and territorial defense units.
At first glance the decision to buy expensive anti-tank missiles might seem counterintuitive in an era when modern drones have proven highly effective against russian tanks. Unmanned systems are often cheaper to produce, can strike at longer ranges and beyond line of sight, and have become a widely used tool for defeating armoured targets. That raises a reasonable question: wouldn't it make more sense to pour this money into drone capabilities?
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However, the Javelin systems and drones perform somewhat different roles. The Javelin missiles reliably neutralize armoured vehicles and offer a "fire-and-forget" capability that simplifies use and increases survivability for small mobile teams. Their lethality against armor is well demonstrated in Ukraine, where the Javelin missiles have repeatedly proven capable of putting enemy vehicles out of action with high confidence.
Poland already fields Israeli Spike missiles, some elements of which have been localized in domestic industry, so buying more Javelin missiles instead of additional Spike systems may seem puzzling. It's possible the choice is influenced by political considerations (as has happened in other NATO procurement decisions) or by a desire to secure another line of financing and political ties with the United States.
It's also worth noting that Poland's defense industry currently produces components for older Spike variants that are no longer widely manufactured elsewhere. Procuring the latest American Javelin variant gives Warsaw a modern, standardized capability that complements its existing inventory, while relying on robust the U.S. production lines.
From Ukrainian perspective, there's an obvious argument for making more anti-tank missiles available to Ukrainian forces, where high unit cost has made them relatively scarce. Missiles like the Javelin system would be a valuable supplement to the swarm and standoff effects that drones currently provide on the battlefield.
Lastly, in the case of russian attack, Poland's acquisition supports a defense posture oriented toward mobile, manoeuvre-based defense, a role in which portable, reliable anti-tank systems like the Javelin unit perform well. But the purchase should not be seen as a substitute for investing in drones and affordable counter-drone systems: having both high-end anti-armor missiles and sufficient low-cost means to neutralize hostile UAVs would give a more balanced and resilient force posture.
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