Halting aid is one of the realistic ways U.S. President Donald Trump could pressure Ukraine, likely to push Kyiv into accepting a ceasefire on terms favoring russia. This has already begun in the humanitarian sphere with the shutdown of all USAID operations, and now military supplies are also at risk.
Crucially, this is not about blocking new aid packages, as none were planned for 2025 due to a lack of allocated funding. Instead, the threat concerns ongoing deliveries organized under the previous administration of Joe Biden.
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Moreover, this rhetoric is not unique to Trump. Even before his meeting with Zelensky on February 28, his administration and most Republicans had publicly stated that the U.S. would no longer send weapons to Ukraine.
In recent days, multiple media outlets, citing their insiders, have reported talks in the White House about halting aid, specifically targeting the allocations approved by Biden before leaving office.
In light of these developments, Defense Express has estimated the volume of military aid currently at risk. This is especially significant as it could affect the "avalanche of weapons" promised in December 2024 by former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.
For a reminder, at that time, $2.2 billion remained in the budget for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which funds weapons purchases from American manufacturers on behalf of Ukraine, and another $3.3 billion was left for the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which provides equipment from Pentagon stockpiles.
Regarding PDA, Biden failed to spend all available funds. The last aid package, announced on January 9, was worth $500 million, leaving $1.05 billion unused. Additionally, $2.8 billion, originally written off due to an accounting error in summer 2023, remained unspent.
Meanwhile, all USAI funds were allocated by the end of 2024, with the last package approved on December 30.
As a result, Ukraine was set to receive approximately $2.3 billion in weapons from Pentagon stockpiles over the past two months, including artillery and missile ammunition, air defense systems, and anti-tank weapons. While these shipments are not publicly tracked, there is no certainty that all allocated aid has already been delivered.
However, an even greater risk lies in halting USAI-funded arms supplies, which are spread over several years. The total value of all USAI packages is around $30 billion — out of $65.9 billion in total military aid since 2022. The deliveries are scheduled through 2025, 2026, and possibly 2027. The extent to which these contracts have already been fulfilled remains undisclosed.
Although it may seem USAI is all about sophisticated weapon systems, a significant portion of the funds — around $10 billion — was allocated for ammunition: missiles, artillery shells, anti-aircraft rounds, and other types. Critically, $4 billion of this funding was approved between August and late December 2024, meaning these munitions are not expected to ship before 2025–2026.
Read more: Reluctance to Finance Additional Ukraine Aid Undermines U.S. Defense Companies: Ammunition Production is the First to Falter
