In the information space, the topic that Poland does not agree to hand over to Ukraine those Mikoyan MiG-29 aircraft (NATO reporting name: Fulcrum) that remained at its disposal arose again.
This time, the reason was the statement of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense of Poland, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, that he "cannot say that he agrees to the transfer of aircraft that are used to protect Poland and patrol Polish skies."
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Against this background, it becomes important to find answers to two questions:
- how many MiG-29s remained at the disposal of Poland after the transfer of 14 aircraft of this type to Ukraine at the beginning of 2023? and
- what factors can prevent the transfer of new jets for the needs of the Armed Forces?
The answers to these questions can give a better understanding on what basis it is possible to conduct communication with the Polish side in order to obtain these necessary MiG-29 aircraft for the Ukrainian army.
The Military Balance 2024 indicates that at the beginning of 2024, Poland had 11 MiG-29s and three more MiG-29UBs, as well as 48 F-16 fighters.
Against this background, it is necessary to make an amendment to the fact that Poland intends to modernize all existing 48 F-16 aircraft to the Block 70/72 standard, which may cost this country 7.3 billion dollars - the US has already given the appropriate permission for this.
This indicates that the Poles want to keep the existing MiG-29 aircraft, at least as a "back-up" for the period when the F-16 modernization will take place.
In addition, Poland has a problem with the adaptation of FA-50 aircraft, which were purchased in the Republic of Korea as a replacement for those MiG-29s, which were transferred to Ukraine in early 2023. In particular, the Poles currently cannot get US consent to integrate AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles into the Korean FA-50. Without them, the FA-50 will only be able to use AIM-9X missiles, which have a range of 30-40 km instead of 160-180 with the AIM-120C-8 missile.
All these factors determine the "decision space" within which Poland currently does not agree to give up the MiG-29 aircraft it has left. This should be taken in mind by Ukrainian officials while they deal on the case with their Polish counterparts, as well as the fact, that Upgrading Ukrainian MiG-29s Would Enhance Ukraine’s Use of Its Own Existing Aircraft.
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