On the right bank of the Dnipro, the enemy concentrated 22 battalion tactical groups, which, after an unsuccessful attack on the South Ukraine NPP, tried to retreat in the direction of Crimea, but at some stage they were stopped by their command and went on the defensive.
On the Kherson-Beryslav bridgehead, there are battalion tactical groups from 108 Air Assault Regiment and 171 Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division, 224, 237, 239 Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division, 217, 331 Airborne Regiment of the 98 Division, 11 Air Assault Brigade, 429 Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Division, 255 Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20 Motorized Rifle Division, 205 Separate Motor Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 4th Guards Military Base of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 126 Coastal Defence Brigade, 10th separate special purpose brigade. The combat operations of the group on the bridgehead are managed by the 49th Army, because after the HIMARS had been used in this direction, the command posts of the 49th Army and the 22nd Army Corps were moved to the left bank of the Dnipro.
Read more: Ukraine’s General Staff Operational Report: Invaders Remove Construction Materials From Civilian Households in Kherson Oblast to Reinforce Fortifications
Defense Express notes that the basis of the group is the airborne assault units, which have sufficient combat experience, are stable in defense, are sufficiently motivated, and are actively resisting the Ukrainian troops.
On the other hand, the military units stationed in the temporarily occupied Crimea have suffered significant losses, are demoralized, and the 127th intelligence brigade generally performs reconnaissance tasks uncharacteristic of ordinary infantry. In general, the russian troops mostly have 60-70% personnel, 40-60% combat equipment, of which up to 70% are operational. The number of their group can be roughly estimated at 10,000 people.
During the past three weeks of October, Ukrainian troops conducted a counteroffensive operation and at the same time created conditions for further advance in various areas of the front line. The Armed Forces of Ukraine used the following tactics: on the one hand, blocking Russian troops in the areas of their concentration, and on the other softening these forces with air strikes and high-precision weapons, periodically attacking in different directions.
The russian forces tried to find countermeasures to the fire strikes of the Ukrainian artillery, to somehow preserve control, save the remains of logistics and heavy armored vehicles. For this reason they constantly maneuvered and regrouped their forces, trying to pull up reserves.
One of the main tasks for Ukraine’s troops is to push the enemy beyond the administrative border of Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts, which probably explains activity near Davydiv Brid and Snihurivka.
On October 3, Ukrainian troops liberated Myrolyubivka and Arkhanhelsk, breaking through russian defenses in the direction of Zolota Balka, but russian troops retreated to prepared in advance defensive positions in the Mykhailivka area, but under pressure from the attackers, the mixed forces were forced to retreat to Dudchany.
Ukraine’s military continued to advance to Nova Kakhovka and liberated Mykhailivka, Havrylivka, Novooleksandrivka, Khreshchenivka along the T0403 road and several more villages on the line Lyubomirivka - Bilyaivka - Novoolesandrivka.
On October 4, Ukraine’s military liberated Kachkarivka, Lyubimivka, Khreshchenivka, Zolota Balka, Bilyaivka, Ukrainka, Velika Oleksandrivka, Mala Oleksandrivka, units of the 35th Marine Brigade entered Dudchan and gained control over at least half of the village, but by evening they completely liberated it.
Russian troops began to withdraw in the direction of Beryslav and regrouped in the area of Mylove. This development of the Ukrainian offensive led to the loss of stability of the defense and its further destruction in the northeastern sector of the russian line along the Kakhovka reservoir.
The decisive offensive of Ukraine’s marines on the left bank of the Inhulets actually pushed the russian troops to the Dnipro in the east and forced them to retreat south in the direction of Kherson and in the direction of Beryslav - Nova Kakhovka.
The russian command realized the need to expand the security zone around Kherson and launched an attack on Ukrainian positions near the village of Ternovi Pody, but was unsuccessful.
Today, the first evaluations of the effectiveness of Ukraine’s tactics of "softening the enemy forces" appeared. The weak link in the defense of the occupiers was the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, exhausted by battles from the very beginning of the invasion without rest, forced to defend an excessively wide area of the front, having garrisons of 15 servicemen.
In the Berislav-Nova Kakovkha area, russian paratroopers retreating from the north of the region are beginning to equip defensive positions and deploy a radar surveillance system, which indicates their plan to hold on to the central part of the bridgehead.
The occupiers moved about 150 of their wounded to the village of Vesele, closer to the Dnipro crossing. Retreating, the enemy destroys ammunition stocks that they cannot take out, further deepening own logistical crisis on the west bank.
On October 7, the enemy began shelling the settlements they had previously lost in the north of Kherson Oblast, using S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems due to the lack of other means of fire damage, building up defensive positions along the line Sukhyi Stavok - Borozenske - Sukhanove - Mylove. The enemy unsuccessfully attacked three times in the direction of Zeleny Hai - Ternovi Pody, almost continuously shelling Ukrainian positions in Pravdyne and Soldatske, along the E58 (M14) route. To strengthen the positions northwest of Kherson, the russian command involves the 127th regiment of the People's Militia of the so-called “DPR” to the engineering equipment of the positions in Kyselivka.
On October 8, the occupiers continued shelling the areas along the contact line in order to prevent the advance of Ukrainian troops, and began equipping new defensive positions in the Berislavske and Novokakhovskyi districts.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine strengthened their defenses at the Inhulets bridgehead, equipped strongholds in Bezymenne, concentrating forces in the area of Davydiv Brid and Mala Oleksandrivka. Ukrainian units repelled a russian attack near Ternovi Pody.
Units of the russian troops repelled attacks of Ukraine’s military near the villages of Dudchany, Sukhanove, Pyatikhatky, Sadky, Ishchenka, Bruskinske, Shchasle and Mala Seidemynykha, tried to capture Pravdyne, held positions in Snihurivka, where units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had broken through.
Ukraine’s aviation struck the positional areas of the russian air defense forces in the Berislavske and Kakhovsky districts, destroyed five fuel depots near Kiselyvka.
The logistical crisis of the russian group continues, although russia’s Ministry of Defense stated that land and sea routes of logistical support are constantly provided by russian forces operating in the Mykolaiv-Kryvorizka and Zaporizhzhia directions.
On October 9 and 10, russian troops, concentrating most of their airstrikes on David Brid, unsuccessfully tried to attack Ukrainian positions with the forces of a motorized rifle platoon. In Dudchany, the occupiers attacked Ukrainian positions with kamikaze drones, and they carried out similar attacks in other settlements.
For the first time, the "partially mobilized" appear on the bridgehead: the russian troops transferred an additional 200 servicemen mobilized from the Volgograd region and the Republic of Kalmykia, and up to 300 units of military equipment to strengthen their positions in the areas of the most active Ukrainian actions.
In the battles in Kherson Oblast, the battalion tactical group of the 150th Motor Rifle Division lost more than 520 servicemen, which is more than half of its strength. The 127th Rifle Regiment of the so-called “DPR” also suffered serious losses while performing combat tasks on the front line in the Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts. The situation of enemy units was also worsened by unsatisfactory provision, in particular, the lack of water supplies.
The Ukrainian artillery inflicts a series of strikes and destroys three ammunition warehouses in the Kherson and Beryslav districts, a command post in the Kakhovsky district, and a military equipment concentration area in Hola Prystan.
On October 11, two Ukrainian battalion tactical groups advanced in the direction of Borozenske and Pyatikhatky. Other Ukrainian forces attacked enemy positions in the direction of Bruskynske, Ishchenka, and Sadkiv.
On October 12, Ukraine’s military continued to advance in the southern direction and attacked in the direction of Mylove, Ishchenka, and Kostromka, liberated Novovasylivka, Novohrihorivka, Nova Kamianka, Trifonivka, and Chervone, thus expanding the security zone on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
On October 13, russian troops launched an unsuccessful assault in the direction of Kostroma and Sukhyi Stavok, and unsuccessfully attacked Ishchenka.
The 46th Division of the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out two short raids in the Borozenske and Bezvodne districts.
Ukraine’s artillery destroyed russian pontoon crossings across the Dnipro and Inhulets rivers, destroyed a command and observation post in the Berislavske district, five ammunition depots, struck the area where russian troops were concentrated in Tokarivka, annihilating 150 russian servicemen.
In the area of the city of Kalanchak a big assembly point for damaged vehicles of the russian group was discovered.
On October 14, Ukrainian troops repulsed the russian offensive on Sukhyi Stavok, and attacked throughout the northern and northwestern part of Kherson Oblast, in particular in the direction of Pyatikhatky and Ishchenka - Bezvodne, strengthening their positions along the Osokorivka - Novooleksandrivka border.
On October 15, after a powerful artillery training, Ukrainian troops launched an offensive along the entire front line from Davydiv Brid in the northwest to Dudchany in the northeast of Kherson Oblast, trying to break through the russian defenses in the direction of Beryslav and from the northwest - in the direction of Ishchenka and Stavky. The units of the russian 126th Coastal Defense Brigade, the 810th Marine Corps Brigade, the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army, the 140th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the 29th Army, and the 10th Special Forces Brigade, exhausted by previous battles, are putting up a desperate resistance.
The course of events in Kherson Oblast shows that this operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is an operation in a different direction (the main one was in the Slobozhankyi region). The command of the operational group of Ukrainian troops, having at its disposal powerful and experienced servicemen is in no hurry to throw them into the meat grinder. The command for a long time skillfully nullifies the potential of the enemy, successively liberating small settlements, relentlessly expanding areas critical for the further development of operations, destroys the enemy's control system, air defense, logistics, knocks out armored objects. All this is happening against the background of the information blockade of the operational zone, strict restrictions related to the security regime of the operation, which shakes the already vulnerable russian information space.
The enemy is preparing for urban battles for Kherson (which is unlikely to happen), because they cannot decide on the next course of action.
Meanwhile, some insiders are more and more frequently stating about the Kremlin's decision to retreat from the west bank of the Dnipro, which the russian General Staff insisted on for a long time, aware of the threat of losing the remnants of three divisions out of four and two out of three airborne assault divisions, as well as all combat units of the 22nd Army Corps and a single marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet.
We are waiting for the development of events.
Viktor KEVLYUK, Center for Defense Strategies
Read more: 237 Days of the War russian Casualties in Ukraine
