The availability of these Soviet-era aircraft depends on Poland’s ability to replace them with modern alternatives, as outlined in the security guarantees agreement signed between Kyiv and Warsaw in July 2024.
On December 23, the first two F-35 jets intended for Poland landed at Ebbing Air National Guard Base, where the initial group of two Polish pilots will undergo training. According to Polish publication ZBiAM, the Polish Air Force is expected to deploy its first operational F-35s in early 2026, following the completion of production and necessary infrastructure upgrades.
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However, it’s important to clarify a bureaucratic nuance: the two F-35s currently stationed at Ebbing Air Base remain under the ownership of the U.S. Department of Defense and will continue to do so until Polish pilot training is completed.
Under the contract signed in 2020, Poland will acquire 32 F-35 aircraft in the advanced TR-3 Block 4 configuration. Despite significant challenges reported with this variant in early 2024, Poland is on track to become the first recipient of the F-35 in Eastern Europe. The first six jets are scheduled to be manufactured by September 2025 and will remain at Ebbing Air Base for pilot training and testing.
Poland has already transferred 14 MiG-29 aircraft to Ukraine in early 2023. However, further transfers are contingent on Poland receiving suitable replacements for its Soviet-era jets. Polish officials have consistently emphasized that additional MiG-29s can only be released once modern replacements are operational.
The Polish Air Force faces logistical and financial challenges, including the acquisition of FA-50 aircraft for $3 billion without AIM-120 missiles and the planned modernization of all 48 F-16 units to the Block 70/72 standard, which could cost an estimated $7.3 billion.
Relying on NATO air policing to cover Poland’s airspace has proven unfeasible due to a general shortage of aircraft among Alliance members. The high costs and long wait times for platforms like the Eurofighter further complicate matters. For instance, Spain has faced significant delays and rising costs for its Eurofighter program, while Italy chose not to disclose the price of its recent order due to its prohibitively high expense.
If Poland manages to release additional MiG-29s to Ukraine in 2025 or early 2026, these aircraft will still hold operational value. Even if their primary role becomes providing spare parts, their availability could bolster Ukraine’s air capabilities.
According to The Military Balance 2024, Poland had 14 MiG-29s in service at the start of the year, including three in a training configuration. While these aircraft are aging, they remain relevant as Ukraine continues to rely on Warsaw Pact-standard equipment while awaiting the gradual delivery of F-16s over the next five years.
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