First signs have appeared that russia may soon withdraw all the ships from its base in the Syrian port of Tartus, operating since 1971. On the morning of December 2, 2024, the russian Yelnya oil tanker was recorded leaving Tartus, this vessel has been of great importance for the logistical support of the russian Navy's fleet in this region.
In his article for Naval News, naval expert H I Sutton refers to data suggesting that some or all other ships, particularly carriers of long-range Kalibr land attack cruise missiles, including a submarine, have also left the port.
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The analyst highlights that these are only indirect signs that russia may decide to evacuate from Tartus. A completely opposite scenario shouldn't be ruled out, where russians may keep Tartus under its control and try to send heavy reinforcements to Bashar Assad's regime later, even attempt to do it via the Black Sea again, exposing the vessels to the threat of Ukrainian unmanned suicide boats.
If the information is correct and russian ships did leave the base in Syria, they might be seeking a safe harbor in the ports of Libya or Algeria for the time being. Also, the russian presence on this base had been a major factor of power balance in the region, so such a withdrawal would entail unpredictable geopolitical consequences, especially against the ongoing and so far successful offensive of Syrian anti-government rebels.
Defense Express would like to elaborate with some additional evidence. Based on satellite images published by MT Anderson, as of December 2, 2024, there were four Kalibr cruise missile carriers deployed at the russian base in Tartus:
- the Project 636.6 submarine Novorossiysk — full salvo four missiles, belongs to the russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF),
- the Project 11356 frigate Admiral Grigorovich — full salvo four eight missiles, belongs to BSF, too, and
- two Project 22350 frigates Admiral Gorshkov and Admiral Golovko — full salvo 16 missiles each, both from the Northern Fleet.
These same Kalibr carriers were also mentioned in the December 3 morning report by the Ukrainian Navy service monitoring the activity of russian vessels in the Black and Mediterranean Seas.
Here's another detail to recall: after February 24, 2022, russia did not have time to return its four Kalibr carrier ships from BSF to their intended operating area in the Black Sea, namely one frigate, one corvette, and two submarines. These four ships then became the core of the russian Navy's operational group since February 2022 deployed on a rotational basis in Tartus, and occasionally sent to the Baltic Sea for repairs.
If we were to align this information with the newest report from the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, currently Moscow intends to try and keep the Syria situation in control primarily by forces on land, in particular by transferring mercenaries from the so-called Africa Corps. The sudden decision to start moving its naval forces indicates that the situation around the important russian base in Tartus may still take an unexpected turn.
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