According to the new three-year spending plan, the russian military budget for 2025 will total 13.5 trillion rubles, or approximately USD 140 billion. Similar figures are envisioned for the following years as well: 12.8 trillion rubles ($128 billion) for 2026, and 13.1 trillion rubles ($126.6 billion) for 2027. The draft proposal for the federal budget was officially released by Moscow’s media outlets.
These figures reflect not only the "administrative victory" of the Ministry of Defense and the military-industrial lobby in russia, but also indicate the Kremlin's commitment to a prolonged war in Ukraine and potentially, "preparations to expand its military operations beyond Ukraine," concludes Pavel Luzin in an article for the Jamestown Foundation.
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The author suggests that the Kremlin’s increased military spending signals its acceptance of further self-isolation and a growing financial burden on russian citizens to sustain the ongoing war effort.
He also emphasized that russia has experienced "turbulent budgetary planning" throughout its full-scale war against Ukraine, with military budgets repeatedly revised upward without clear justification — partly due to inflation, Luzin assumes.
For instance, in 2023, russia initially allocated 5 trillion rubles for military expenses but spent 6.5 trillion rubles (~$75 billion) in just the first three quarters of the year. A similar trend occurred in 2024, when the original budget of 10 trillion rubles swelled to 12.4 trillion rubles (or $132 billion).
Luzin argues that if the Kremlin believed the war in Ukraine would end soon, it would likely reduce its future military spending, as current expenditures are already approaching critical levels relative to GDP. However, this is not the case.
Instead, it is likely that russia will continue to maintain its defense budget at a minimum of $100 billion annually over the next decade to replenish weapon stockpiles and maintain incentive payments to military personnel.
To put things into perspective, russia's military budget was under $50 billion annually before 2022, but it surged to $80 billion by the end of that year.
Read more: NATO is 49 Brigades Short of Minimum Requirements: Half the U.S. Army or 4x Times the Bundeswehr
