Tank production in russia has always been both an intriguing and controversial topic. Propaganda statements often clash with industrial realities, as Moscow blurs the lines between new production, modernization, and major overhauls to inflate its output figures. This makes it difficult to assess whether russia can replenish its tank losses, now exceeding 4,100 units, in a timely manner.
A new investigation by the Frontelligence Insight team sheds light on the issue. Drawing on internal documents and open-source data, analysts estimated russia's potential tank production rates between 2026 and 2036, focusing specifically on the T-90M and T-90M2 variants.
Read more: russians Claim They Repaired T-90M Proryv Tank in 4 Weeks After 26 Drone Hits
The analysis began with what appeared to be a routine letter from Uralvagonzavod to JSC ZOMZ (JSC Zagorsk Optical and Mechanical Plant), requesting the supply of part IS-445 for Project 188M2. The IS-445 is an engine speed sensor, only one is installed per vehicle, making it a useful indicator of planned production volumes.
Further research into russian media archives revealed that Project 188M corresponds to the T-90M Proryv-3, suggesting that 188M2 likely refers to an upgraded version, the T-90M2.
This interpretation is supported by the publicly available biography of Andrey Sergeyevich Rokhmanko, a design engineer credited with contributing to the development of the modernized T-90M2 Ryvok-1.
Eventually, researchers obtained a procurement request from Uralvagonzavod's commercial director to ZOMZ outlining long-term supply plans for 2027–2036. The document included projections for new production, modernization, and major overhauls.
According to the data (shown in the chart below), between 2026 and 2036, russia plans to produce, modernize, or overhaul a total of 1,783 T-90M and T-90M2 tanks, with the majority (1,118 units) scheduled for 2027–2029.
However, these three years include both new production and upgrades. From 2031 to 2036, the plans cover only modernization and refurbishment, with no new tanks scheduled for manufacture.
Another noteworthy detail is the absence of data for 2030. Analysts suggest this gap may correspond to a year of retooling or expansion in russia's armored vehicle production capacity.
It is also puzzling that official plans indicate a halt in new T-90M/M2 production after 2030. In reality, the russian defense industry will likely continue producing new tanks into the 2030s, though the exact pace remains uncertain.
Earlier, Defense Express reported that Germany plans to procure a wheeled tank destroyer to counter russia's T-90M, though the program may involve two different vehicle concepts currently under evaluation.
Read more: How Many T-72 and T-90M Tanks UralVagonZavod Produced for the russian Army in 2024
