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russia's Strategic Aviation Crisis: Failing Attempts to "Reproduce" the Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 at the Kazan Aviation Plant

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Modernized Tu-22M3M for the Russian Aerospace Forces at the territory of the Kazan Aircraft Plant, March 2023 / Open source photo
Modernized Tu-22M3M for the Russian Aerospace Forces at the territory of the Kazan Aircraft Plant, March 2023 / Open source photo

How do russia's strategic aviation production capabilities look in practice, and why was the attack on the plant significant?

Reports have already emerged that, on the night of January 20, 2025, long-range kamikaze drones from Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck the Kazan Aircraft Production Association (KAPO), which manufactures Tu-22M3 and Tu-160 strategic bombers.

At present, open-source data confirms only the fact of the UAV raid on this plant. However, this alone makes it crucial to examine russia’s current production of new Tu-22M3 and Tu-160 bombers, as the findings reveal a somewhat paradoxical picture.

Read more: Long-Range Kamikaze Drones of Ukraine's Defense Forces Attack Aviation Plant in Kazan, Producing Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 Strategic Bombers
Unfinished Tu-160s on the slipways of the Kazan Aviation Plant
Unfinished Tu-160s on the slipways of the Kazan Aviation Plant, 2014 / Open source photo

To begin with, russia is currently incapable of manufacturing entirely new Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 bombers from scratch. To assemble what are officially labeled as "new" aircraft of these types, the russians are forced to use Soviet-era airframes that have been sitting in KAPO workshops for several decades. In russian propaganda terminology, this process is now referred to as "reproduction".

Regarding the Tu-160, open sources indicate that, between 2022 and 2023, as part of the "reproduction" program, russia assembled three bombers of this type from Soviet airframes, designating them as Tu-160M. Additionally, before February 2022, another operational aircraft of this type had been undergoing modernization at KAPO under the same Tu-160M designation.

The paradox is that the russian Ministry of Defense now hopes to commission all four Tu-160Ms, each capable of carrying 12 cruise missiles, into the russian Aerospace Forces by at least 2025—despite the fact that all four aircraft were initially scheduled for delivery in 2023.

Rollout of a russian Tu-160M, assembled from Soviet-era
Rollout of a russian Tu-160M, assembled from Soviet-era "spare parts," from the factory workshop on December 30, 2022 / Open source photo

This suggests significant issues with the engines and onboard systems of these bombers. As a result, KAPO can formally present the ordered Tu-160Ms, but these missile carriers remain unusable for their intended purpose. Their only practical use so far has been as a backdrop for putin’s propaganda visit to the Kazan Aviation Plant in February 2024.

As for the Tu-22M3, the situation is even more telling. Satellite images from before February 2022 showed that six Tu-22M3 airframes were stored in an open storage area at the Kazan Aviation Plant, awaiting engines and onboard electronics. Between 2012 and 2021, KAPO and russia’s Ministry of Defense engaged in fruitless negotiations regarding potential work on these aircraft.

The outcome is quite revealing—at most, two of the six airframes were either used as spare parts donors or for the construction of a modernized Tu-22M3M airframe, which was publicly revealed in March 2023.

Gliders of four unfinished Tu-22M3s at one of the sites of the Kazan Aviation Plant
Gliders of four unfinished Tu-22M3s at one of the sites of the Kazan Aviation Plant, October 2022 / Photo credit: Google Earth

The story of the modernized Tu-22M3M bombers is even stranger. The russians rolled out the first aircraft of this variant in 2018, the second in March 2022, and that concludes the list of available bombers of this type. Nevertheless, this did not stop KAPO’s management from announcing, at the end of 2023, an as-yet unfulfilled plan to install refueling probes on all operational Tu-22Ms in the russian Aerospace Forces.

When assessing the significance of the Kazan Aviation Plant and the importance of the strike on this facility, one key fact stands out—this plant is one of the largest enterprises in russia’s military defense industry, employing as many as 8,500 people.

Display of four Tu-160Ms in the hangar of the Kazan Aviation Plant
Display of four Tu-160Ms in the hangar of the Kazan Aviation Plant, February 2024 / Open source photo
Read more: What is Known About the Aircraft Factory in Kazan for Producing Tu-22M3 and Tu-160, Where Ukrainian UAVs Struck