Several russian media outlets recently reported a statement by Oleg Morozov, head of the oversight committee in russia's State Duma, claiming that the workforce deficit in the country's defense industry could soon reach 400,000 people. He attributed this shortfall to a decade-long decline in engineering personnel, suggesting that strengthening engineering education might address the issue.
At first glance, this announcement might seem straightforward: russian officials discussing a worker shortage in their defense sector likely signals plans to boost weapons production.
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However, a deeper analysis reveals a far more complex situation. Since the onset of its full-scale war against Ukraine, russia has already taken steps to increase its defense industry workforce, achieving some progress in the process.
For instance, by March 2024, the russian defense sector employed 3.5 million people, up from 2.4 million in February 2022.
This expansion, however, was achieved through unconventional means. These included employing prisoners in defense sector roles and other parts of the economy. By March 2023, russia also resorted to assigning students and prisoners to factories, freeing up regular workers to be sent to the front lines.
Such measures suggest that russia has already undergone multiple waves of workforce expansion in its defense industry. The current claims likely reflect the need for yet another wave of recruitment.
It is reasonable to hypothesize that russia's renewed push for additional personnel stems from challenges in acquiring modern Western-made machinery, which it previously obtained by circumventing sanctions. In response, russia may now be attempting to compensate for its lack of advanced equipment through extensive human resources—essentially aiming to staff defense industry enterprises with even more workers.
Whether this assumption is accurate will depend on further developments, which we will continue to monitor closely.
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