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Ukraine's Donbas Strategy: Slow Retreat, Maximizing russia's Losses - NYT

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The Ukrainian forces continue to defeat the occupiers on their land / Photo: Public Relations Service of the 92nd Assault Brigade Ivan Sirko
The Ukrainian forces continue to defeat the occupiers on their land / Photo: Public Relations Service of the 92nd Assault Brigade Ivan Sirko

Ukraine is using a rope-a-dope tactic, allowing russian forces to wear themselves out through continuous attacks while fighting fiercely and gradually retreating

The goal is to trade territory for enemy losses, forcing russia to deplete its resources while preserving its own strength, The New York Times reports.

Key Losses and Tactical Retreats

Read more: The UK Defense Intelligence Predicts russia’s Next Targets Following Vuhledar Capture

In 2024, Ukraine lost several key cities in Donbas after prolonged battles. Marinka fell first, followed by Avdiivka, and recently Vuhledar.

Defense Express
Archive photo: the Ukrainian city of Vuhledar, devastated by russian shelling and hostilities, February 2023 / Photo credit: Kostiantyn Liberov

Despite conceding territory, Ukrainian commanders emphasize that the war has entered a phase of attrition, where the decisive factor is not control over land, but the losses sustained by both sides.

The idea is to retreat from towns under attack after exacting the highest price it can on manpower and matériel.

"It’s a matter of how much they lose before they realize it’s futile," Oleksandr Solonko, a member of Ukraine’s 411th drone battalion, who is fighting around the frontline city of Pokrovsk, said of the russians. But faced with relentless assaults, he added, some Ukrainian commanders also "prefer to abandon a position or a settlement if it reduces personnel losses."

russia’s Aggressive Offensive and Ukrainian Losses

russia continued its massive attacks, using artillery, drones, and tanks regardless of losses. Ukraine, with fewer resources, tries to inflict maximum damage on the enemy before retreating to preserve its own forces.

Defense Express
Defenders of Ukraine repel the enemy, March 2023 / Illustrative photo by the General Staff of the Armed Forces

"This war isn’t going to be decided by who controls Vuhledar or other tactical frontline towns and cities," said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst. "It’s about how many troops the russians have spent trying to seize Vuhledar versus the losses the Ukrainians have sustained in trying to hold it."

Defense Express
Destroyed equipment of the russian invaders near Vuhledar, February 2023 / Photo from open sources

Losses Matter More Than Territory

Experts argue that the key factor is the balance of losses, not control over individual towns.

Ukrainian and Western officials point to rising russian casualty figures — nearly 1,200 a day in August this year, according to an adviser to the British military, Nicholas Aucott — as evidence of the war’s heavy toll on russia.

russia is suffering significant losses in both armored vehicles and manpower. According to forecasts, at the current rate of losses, russia could exhaust its stock of armored vehicles by 2026. "This is the most important thing — to exhaust the enemy," President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine said in his address.

Risks and Counteroffensive Prospects

Ukraine is gradually narrowing the gap in artillery usage, thanks to mobilization and Western support. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s top commander, said last month that the ratio of artillery shells usage between russia and Ukraine had narrowed in recent months.

Defense Express
Photo credit: the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Donbas has become a battleground where both sides are using every available means to achieve victory.

"The Donbas," Volia, a captain in Ukraine’s National Guard said, "is the field for using all means and hitting as much as one can."

Read more: ​The Defense Forces of Ukraine Strike Three russian Command Posts with Precision Storm Shadow Missiles