While russia is increasing the number of attack drones it sends into Ukraine by the day, some media have been telling that the Ukrainian Defense Forces are shooting down fewer Shahed-136 loitering munitions these days.
This is apparently because the Air Force Command began to use more precise wording like "Shahed-type attack unmanned aerial vehicles and unidentified-type UAVs," and also added a new category for those not reaching the target: "location lost."
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Due to these changes, there could be cases when the Command said, for example, 48 enemy drones out of 79 were shot down — as in last night on November 5 — and it was misinterpreted for admission that as many as 31 Russian drones broke through the Ukrainian air defense system. Although in reality, the post clearly specifies that "location was lost" on another 30 UAVs, and one more returned to the russian federation.
In Layman's terms, tonight, out of 79 russian drones, not a single one caused damage: either engaged by air defense or simply fell somewhere. Technically speaking, yes, only 48 of them were shot down, while the rest fell in unknown locations. The reason why they landed was not specified: whether it was the result of electromagnetic suppression, or these were actually decoys that simply ran out of fuel.
The military jargon might be tough to crack for those outside of that particular field, so a false impression that Ukraine's air defenses have been less productive began to spread and was picked up by the russian war propaganda. Against this background, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces decided to summarize the results of various anti-drone countermeasures in August and September.
In August 2024, russia launched 818 Shahed-type attack drones and unidentified UAVs; 701 of them were shot down and 91 fell under the "location lost" category which means that only 26 drones caused direct damage, i.e. 3.18%. In September, russians used 1,410 drones; 1,156 were shot down, and 201 were lost, and only 3.76% of them caused damage. Here's the breakdown:
October was the most difficult time for Ukrainian air defense, as russians launched a record-breaking 2,072 killer drones; 1,206 were shot down, 766 were lost, and 4.83% hit their targets.
That is, for the sake of 1% additional effectiveness, the russian forces had to launch 1.5 times more drones than a month ago. Moreover, in May–July this year, Ukrainian Air Force statistics were even less optimistic: 6% of enemy drones were not be shot down or countered in any other way. That is despite the fact russians had not yet used so many false targets then.
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