russian company Bureau 1440 has already launched two batches of Rassvet-3 satellites into low Earth orbit as part of its effort to deploy a domestic alternative to the U.S. Starlink satellite network. The first launch took place on March 23, followed by a second on July 19.
However, russia appears to be facing serious problems both with the satellites themselves and with the further deployment of the constellation. On June 6, the fourth Rassvet-3 satellite, catalogued as NORAD 68363, re-entered Earth's atmosphere and was lost following an unspecified malfunction.
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One might have expected russian engineers to investigate the incident and address the underlying problems to prevent similar failures. However, according to satellite-tracking services monitoring objects in Earth orbit, two satellites from the second batch now appear to be at risk of falling back into the atmosphere.
The satellites in question are Rassvet-3 No. 17 and No. 23, catalogued as NORAD 100083 and NORAD 100089, respectively. Since separating from their launch vehicle on July 19, neither satellite appears to have activated its propulsion system or performed any orbit-raising maneuvers.
At present, both satellites have an average orbital altitude of approximately 290 km, with their lowest orbital point, or perigee, at around 277 km. That altitude is gradually decreasing, and the rate of decay appears to be accelerating.
If the satellites do not raise their orbits, they could soon reach a point where atmospheric drag makes recovery increasingly difficult, eventually leading to re-entry and destruction in the atmosphere.
However, the possible loss of two additional satellites is not the only problem facing the Rassvet-3 constellation.
The satellites that have successfully begun raising their orbits have still not reached the planned operational altitude of approximately 800 km.
Even satellites from the first batch, launched more than five months ago, have yet to reach their intended orbit. Most of the first batch currently appears to be operating at altitudes of roughly 500 to 550 km, while some satellites remain below even that level.
For reasons that have not been publicly explained, russia has not yet moved the satellites toward their planned 800 km orbit.
russia's problems with its Starlink alternative may extend beyond the satellites themselves. On the night of August 15, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Progress Rocket and Space Center in Samara with two FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles.
The facility is responsible for manufacturing Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicles, the same rockets used to launch Rassvet-3 satellites.
If the strike causes a prolonged disruption to production, especially given reports that the attack hit the final assembly area, russia could face serious difficulties in continuing the deployment of the Rassvet-3 constellation and potentially supporting other space programs.
Such disruptions could also jeopardize Bureau 1440's ambitious plans to deploy a constellation of 300 satellites by the end of 2027, which is intended to provide the initial operational capability of the network.
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