This week, the U.S. Department of War launched the Europe Posture Review, an assessment of the size and structure of U.S. forces in Europe. It is expected to last up to six months, but may conclude earlier.
Its outcome is not difficult to predict, even at this stage. According to U.S. Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby, the Europe Posture Review is designed to ensure that "NATO is moving fast and irreversibly toward Europe taking primary responsibility for its conventional defense."
Read more: While the Pentagon Seeks an Unarmored Hybrid ISV-Heavy, U.S. Experts Say It Should Learn from Ukraine
In addition, the restructuring of U.S. forces in Europe is intended to make NATO "more equitable," encourage allies to "take the lead in Europe's conventional defense," and pave the way for the Alliance's transformation into what Colby calls NATO 3.0.
At the same time, the entire transformation and review will be in line with U.S. interests, as outlined in the 2025 National Security Strategy and the 2026 National Defense Strategy. In particular, the term NATO 3.0 implies that the original NATO was created to contain the Soviet Union and fulfilled its mission, while NATO 2.0—which now appears to be in its final days—has existed since 1991. At the same time, the third version of the Alliance must recognize that Europe's problems are Europe's problems, not those of the United States.
It should be that the U.S. National Security Strategy states that Europe is no longer an ally and that its importance is significantly less than that of the Pacific region, where the main forces are to be concentrated.
This assessment is also reflected, albeit in somewhat milder terms, in the Defense Strategy, which states that "russia will remain a persistent but manageable threat to NATO's eastern members," but that "Moscow is in no position to make a bid for European hegemony."
It follows that, although "the U.S. will remain engaged in Europe, priority is given to protecting the U.S. and deterring China."
The following chart, illustrating nominal gross domestic product, shows that NATO members—excluding the United States—have a 13-fold economic advantage over russia, which can and must be translated into defense capabilities.
At the same time, it is noted that russia still poses a threat to the U.S. with its world's largest nuclear arsenal, as well as its submarine, space, and cyber capabilities. Therefore, the Pentagon must "ensure that U.S. forces are prepared to defend against russian threats" directed at the U.S.
That is why the future of the approximately 80,000 U.S. military personnel currently located in Europe is already clear. The U.S. is likely to retain forces dedicated to countering these specific threats. However, its ground forces and a significant portion of its air assets will most likely be redeployed to other regions.
Read more: Turkiye Eyes Egypt as S-400 Buyer to Fix F-35 Program Problem, Cairo Already Operates russian S-300VM Claiming 40km Ballistic Intercept
