russian sources had previously complained that Ukrainian drones were already capable of penetrating aircraft shelters. This assessment has now been further reinforced by operational results.
Ukraine's Security Service (SSU) reported a successful strike on the Saky airbase in temporarily occupied Crimea, where Ukrainian forces carried out five confirmed hits on hangars housing Su-30 and Su-30SM fighter jets.
Read more: Ukrainian Prymary Unit Strikes russian Radars, EW Systems, Aircraft Shelters and Fuel Depot (Video)
"After the strike, a fire was recorded in the hangar containing a Su-30SM, indicating a successful engagement of the target," the statement said.
russia began an active construction program for hardened aircraft shelters at Saky airbase in the autumn of 2024, aiming to protect aircraft from ATACMS cluster munitions and the then-existing warhead types used on Ukrainian drones.
Although exact specifications remain classified, the shelters are reinforced concrete structures capable of accommodating aircraft in the Su-27 family. Approximately ten such shelters were built at Saky, with part of the infrastructure reportedly completed by the summer of 2025. In total, similar shelters have been constructed at around 14 airbases located close to the Ukrainian border.
However, the increasing power of Ukrainian drone warheads, including those of the FP-2 class with an estimated 200 kg explosive payload, has significantly reduced the effectiveness of such hardened shelters. Even without direct penetration, the blast effect alone can be sufficient to damage aircraft inside.
A detonation of this magnitude can cause spalling on the inner surface of reinforced concrete structures, turning concrete fragments into high-velocity secondary shrapnel capable of damaging aircraft parked inside the shelter.
In addition, combined warhead designs such as BROACH-type systems, used in missiles like Storm Shadow / SCALP, can further increase penetration effectiveness. In such configurations, a precursor shaped charge breaches the structure, allowing a follow-on high-explosive fragmentation charge to enter the opening and detonate inside.
In any case, the continued evolution of Ukrainian drone capabilities, combined with operator proficiency, has not only undermined russia’s expensive aircraft shelter program but also forced Moscow into a strategic dilemma with two unfavorable outcomes.
If russian forces choose to relocate aircraft further away from the front line, beyond the effective range of Ukrainian drones equipped with 200 kg-class warheads, operational tempo will decrease. Tactical aviation will need to cover significantly greater distances to reach operational zones, increasing fuel consumption and accelerating airframe and engine wear.
Moreover, more distant airbases are less likely to have reinforced shelters, leaving aircraft potentially exposed to long-range drone strikes, even with smaller warheads.
If, on the other hand, russia keeps aircraft at forward airbases, they remain vulnerable to repeated strikes against both exposed assets and hardened shelters that are no longer fully effective.
In either scenario, the choice imposes costs on russian tactical aviation, while maintaining operational pressure in Ukraine’s favor.
Read more: russians Admit Ukrainian Drones Are Successfully Hitting Concrete Aircraft Shelters Built to Protect Against ATACMS
