The night of July 9, when 14 vessels were struck, marked the most successful operation by Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces since the campaign against russia's shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov began on July 6. As Defense Express previously reported, over the first 96 hours of the operation, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck a total of 35 enemy vessels, 33 of which were unique targets.
Given that Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces have been striking an average of about a dozen vessels of various types each night—most of them tankers—the key question is how many such vessels are actually in the Sea of Azov and how long the operation could continue.
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Using SAR satellite imagery from July 7, we determined that there were 120 vessels of various types in the Sea of Azov as of the date the imagery was captured. In other words, based on this rough estimate, Ukraine struck approximately 27.5% of the vessels believed to have been in the Sea of Azov during that 96-hour period.
The image quality is insufficient to identify the type of each of the 120 vessels. However, most of them are bulk carriers, while tankers make up a significant share but remain less numerous.
However, the total number of vessels in the Sea of Azov, as well as the percentage that have been struck, is not what matters most. The current campaign represents an expansion of Ukraine's medium-range strike campaign from the temporarily occupied territories into the Sea of Azov—an important logistical corridor and an alternative supply route to temporarily occupied Crimea.
Therefore, just as in the temporarily occupied territories, strikes against russian ships must be systematic and sustained in order to be effective. However, the number of russian ships—particularly tankers—is far smaller than the number of trucks and fuel tankers, and with no cover at sea, disrupting maritime traffic is likely to be even easier than disrupting transport on land.
To reduce the risk of Ukrainian drone strikes on ships, russians appear to have either sped up vessel inspections before they transit the Kerch Strait or scrapped them altogether. Previously, dozens of vessels waited at anchor on both sides of the Crimean Bridge for permission to transit. Now, however, the number of anchored vessels has dropped sharply, while traffic through the strait has become busier than ever.
In addition, SAR satellite imagery shows bright reflections around the Crimean Bridge. These are caused by russian electronic warfare systems protecting the bridge and the Kerch area from Ukrainian attacks.
Interestingly, these bright reflections do not appear in every image, but only in some of them. This may indicate problems with the electronic warfare systems, or that they were switched off when no threat was present.
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