Russian officials almost certainly consider the collapse of the Assad regime, its former Syrian ally, to be both detrimental to its regional strategic interests, and to its image as a security guarantor, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
Russian leadership almost certainly considers the war in Ukraine to be their primary concern. Russia’s prioritization of the war likely degraded russia’s ability and capacity to keep the Assad regime in power.
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Russia’s primary aim in Syria is to maintain control of its military bases, its largest overseas naval base at Tartus and its airbase in Khmeimim, to enable russian strategic access to the Near East and Mediterranean Sea, supporting its aims in Africa and allowing for military power projection. The collapse of the Assad regime has almost certainly increased the risk to the security of these assets.
In the short term, russia will highly likely seek to repair its reputation as a reliable partner and engage diplomatically with all relevant actors involved, in efforts to ensure security guarantees for its military bases.
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