Russian Air Force Long Range Aviation (LRA) aircraft have not conducted a strike against Ukraine since September 21, 2023, a period of 21 days, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
While such breaks have not been unusual, the last similar break in strikes occurred between March 9 and April 28, 2023, a period of 51 days. In that instance it was likely that LRA had almost depleted its stocks of capable AS-23 missile munitions following its winter campaign against Ukrainian critical national infrastructure.
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This time, it is likely that russian LRA are preserving existing stocks of AS-23 missiles as well as using this pause to increase useable stocks in anticipation of further heavy strikes against Ukraine over the winter.
Recently, russia has focused its airstrikes against grain-related facilities across the south of Ukraine, using Shahed one-way-attack unmanned aerial vehicles (OWA UAVs). This included strikes against Ukrainian Danube River ports, which likely required a high level of accuracy due to the target’s proximity to the Romanian border. It is likely that russia used Shahed OWA UAVs on these targets because of their better accuracy over other types of air-launched missiles.
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