Romanian officials are warning that the country should prepare for a new wave of aggression from the Kremlin, as russia has entered a new phase of its war against Ukraine and is testing the resolve and capabilities of both NATO and Bucharest.
In particular, russia has begun deliberately targeting commercial shipping, striking more than 30 merchant vessels, two of which were in the immediate vicinity of the Romanian border. Between July 24 and 26, russian drones violated Romanian airspace three times, with one drone flying more than 350 kilometers over Romanian territory.
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An analytical report by Romania's New Strategy Center, cited by Defense Romania, argues that russia's next move will be a jet-powered drone attack on the Reni–Galati area. The fact is that russian strikes on ports and shipping in the Odesa region have effectively blocked Ukraine's ability to export grain by sea.
An alternative route is the Danube. However, this waterway has reached record-low water levels. Water flow at the river's mouth has fallen to 1,700 m³/s, compared with the average of 4,700 m³/s, marking the lowest level since 1996. As a result, barges have been forced to reduce their cargo loads by 30–60%.
"In the first phase, russia is likely to test the capacity and reaction time of the air defense by launching coordinated waves of drones from multiple directions, with the Galati-Reni area representing a critical point due to the extremely short range available for interception, Romania's New Strategy Center writes, adding that the enemy use of Geran-3/4/5 jet-powered drones would be the most likely and threatening scenario.
The report also warns that russia may carry out a false-flag operation by using Ukrainian drones that it had previously intercepted and refurbished to block the river transport corridor. Another expected target is the Neptun Deep offshore gas project in Romania's exclusive economic zone, which is not covered by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.
"If the provocations continue to intensify, Romania could be determined to invoke Article 4 of the NATO Treaty for the first time to open official consultations with allies and request additional intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities," the report states.
The report also notes that more than 50 incidents involving the fall of russian drone debris have been recorded. In one incident, a russian drone struck a high-rise residential building in the city of Galati, injuring two people.
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