The production cycle for Rafale aircraft is 36 months. Accordingly, to fulfill its promise to deliver 16 of these aircraft to Ukraine in 2028, the French government would already have had to place an order with aircraft manufacturer Dassault.
So far, the French government has not placed such an order. This raises an interesting question: where exactly will the Rafale jets promised to Ukraine come from?
Read more: Ukrainian Air Force to Receive New F-16s From Belgium, but Their Operational Status Hinges on a Critical Maintenance Issue
According to Opex360, there are two possible sources for the Rafale jets promised to Ukraine: either one of France's export customers could give up its place in the production queue at the French government's request, or the 16 aircraft could come from the fifth batch currently being built for the French Air Force.
The first tranche for Ukraine is expected to consist of four Rafale jets, with their transfer scheduled to take place after the completion of pilot and aircraft maintenance technician training, which is set to begin in 2026.
In addition, the approximately six Mirage 2000s already supplied to Ukraine are also expected to be equipped with 68-mm guided missiles for use against russian jet-powered UAVs.
From Defense Express we would like to note that if the assessment made by the authors of Opex360 is correct, and either the French Air Force or one of France's export customers is prepared to reallocate Rafale jets to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, this could signal France's intention to maintain military support for Ukraine regardless of the outcome of the French presidential election scheduled for April 2027.
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