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India's Refusal to Buy Su-57 Now Is Painful Blow to russian Aviation, But AMCA Delays Could Reopen the Door for Moscow's "Analognet" Fighter

2313
russian Su-57 fighters / Open source photo
russian Su-57 fighters / Open source photo

Defense Minister Rajesh Kumar Singh rules out near-term purchase as India focuses on Su-30MKI upgrades, but AMCA's 2035 serial production timeline draws doubt

Rashists actively promoted their analognet Su-57 fighters to India, generously offering wide localization and technology transfer. However this apparently proved insufficient, as New Delhi ruled out possibility of such purchase in near perspective.

India's Defense Minister Rajesh Kumar Singh stated this. According to him, country currently does not plan to purchase new combat aircraft variants from Sukhoi and will concentrate on modernizing already-available Su-30MKI fleet.

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Indian Air Force Su-30MKI fighter/ Open source photo
Indian Air Force Su-30MKI fighter/ Open source photo

Defense Express notes this is serious loss of one of largest buyers for russian aircraft building, as potential Indian contract could give order for dozens of aircraft. This would not only provide work for production capacities but bring additional funds and capabilities for scaling output volumes.

This is precisely why russian proposal was very generous and included not only quite fast delivery but also production localization and technology transfer. Also rashists promised to help with Indian 5th-generation AMCA fighter project.

AMCA program fighter model / Photo credit: HAL
AMCA program fighter model / Photo credit: HAL

One argument in favor of Su-57 was capability to relatively quickly close gaps in India's air force capabilities and also strengthen own aircraft building. Rusians even already managed to conduct local industry assessment and agree on Sukhoi Superjet passenger airliner localization in India.

However this likely was insufficient to outweigh doubts regarding analognet stealth capabilities and questions about production or maintenance under sanctions conditions. At same time, need for russian technologies could decrease, as for creating same engine for AMCA, French Safran was engaged, which supplies engines for Rafale.

Full-scale AMCA mockup at Aero India 2025 / Photo credit: India Today
Full-scale AMCA mockup at Aero India 2025 / Photo credit: India Today

However from Indian side negative perception of Su-57 procurement refusal also occurs. This is explained by fact that although fighter created within AMCA should take to sky in 2029 and go into serial production in 2035, doubts exist regarding realism of such timelines.

Concerns are caused by experience of previous Indian aircraft building projects, where delays arose, and recent tender relaunch for finding manufacturer. Therefore probability exists India's Air Force will remain without part of combat capabilities.

russian Su-57 fighter / Open source photo
russian Su-57 fighter / Open source photo

Here, effectively, window may arise for rashists' return: if AMCA is seriously delayed, Indians may again begin seeking interim solutions, where one of potential variants will be Su-57. At same time there are no plans for purchasing russian fighters now, so theoretically in future opinion may change.

Also worth recalling that under Super Sukhoi program, India so far plans to modernize with own forces only 84 Su-30MKI, at same time process is very stretched in time. Therefore probability exists of engaging rashists here too within potential contract for updating 175 aircraft.

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