After first FP-7 ballistic missile combat use, Ukraine is preparing 855km-range FP-9 for first flight. Therefore worth looking at when American analog — PrSM Increment 4 — will fly.
U.S. Army gave contracts to 5 companies for developing ballistic missile prototype with range up to 1,000 km and launch from M142 HIMARS MLRS. This involves Anduril, Castelion, Lockheed Martin, RTX and Mach Industries.
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In fiscal year 2027, company developments will participate in competitive flight tests, after which American military will conduct first selection. Final test launches will be conducted in fiscal year 2028, with final selection in fiscal year 2030.
Defense Express notes from provided timelines it follows in 2030 U.S. Army will determine who will develop and supply PrSM Increment 4. After this, transitioning to serial production may require some additional time.
Specifically, phase for refining system to required characteristics may arise, proving reliability, polishing deficiencies and teething problems. This process may take several years and include additional tests.
Also in any case necessary formalities and procedures for beginning procurement process will need to be completed, as well as beginning low-rate production. So we can assume missile may enter service at best in first half of 2030s.
Worth recalling for Ukrainian FP-7, from testing start to first combat use less than a year passed, but these are not entirely comparable scenarios. In Ukraine they develop weapons under war conditions and refine it on the go, while U.S. tries to achieve highest possible readiness level.
Overall development completion and deployment timing depends on product, financing, industry condition and other factors. Here recall currently PrSM Increment 1 with 500 km range is already in serial production and was already used on battlefield.
Also ordered is production start and deployment of PrSM Increment 2, which will have combined seeker and will be able to engage ships.
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