The recent satellite imagery of the Progress Rocket Space Centre in Samara appears to confirm the destruction of the building where the final assembly of Soyuz launch vehicles was carried out. If confirmed, the strike represents a major blow to russia's space program.
The facility manufactured russia’s primary launch vehicle for putting satellites and spacecraft into orbit, the Soyuz-2.
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Since the beginning of russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has conducted 84 orbital launches. Of these, 71 used Soyuz-2 launch vehicles, nine used vehicles from the Angara family, and four were carried out using Proton rockets.
Military missions account for the largest share of these launches. Forty-five launches were conducted for russia’s Defense Ministry and other security agencies, carrying military and dual-use satellites into orbit.
Another 25 launches involved Soyuz crewed spacecraft and Progress cargo spacecraft traveling to the International Space Station (ISS). The remaining 14 launches carried commercial and scientific satellites or involved experimental missions.
In other words, russia’s military is by far the largest customer for the country’s space launch industry. Soyuz-2 launch vehicles have been used to deploy a wide range of military and dual-use spacecraft, including Meridian and Gonets communications satellites, the Obzor-R, Kondor and Bars Earth-observation satellites, Lotos electronic intelligence satellites and GLONASS navigation satellites.
All of these satellite systems support the russian military and are used, directly or indirectly, in russia’s war against Ukraine.
russia has even discussed using a Soyuz-2 rocket to launch a FAB-9000 aerial bomb into orbit as a means of striking Ukrainian cities, although this idea appears to have remained at the level of propaganda and speculation. russian Z-propaganda has also long embraced the Soyuz launch vehicles as symbols of the country’s military and technological power.
Soyuz-2 has also been used to launch Rassvet, russia’s proposed Starlink-like satellite communications system, as well as strategically important spacecraft such as Tundra, part of russia’s missile-warning system.
The same launch vehicles have carried russia’s so-called Nivelir inspector satellites, which are designed to approach and potentially destroy other spacecraft. But the implications go beyond military satellites. Soyuz-2 is currently russia’s only launch vehicle capable of sending people into orbit. Since 2022, russia has conducted nine Soyuz launches carrying cosmonauts to the ISS.
This makes the reported destruction of the Soyuz production facility particularly significant. If russia cannot restore production, its remaining stock of completed launch vehicles could become the limiting factor for both military launches and crewed missions.
While the ISS was heavily dependent on russian Soyuz and Progress spacecraft in the early 2010s for crew and cargo transportation and regular orbital reboosts, the situation is very different today. In 2020, russia lost its monopoly on crew transportation to the ISS when SpaceX’s Crew Dragon entered service. Since then, Crew Dragon has carried more people to the station than Soyuz, with 16 crew members transported in 2025 compared with just six aboard Soyuz spacecraft.
russia’s share of ISS cargo deliveries has also declined significantly. In 2025, Progress spacecraft delivered about 7.8 tonnes of cargo, compared with roughly 20 tonnes delivered by Cygnus, HTV-X1 and Cargo Dragon spacecraft. In other words, the reported disruption to Soyuz production does not currently pose a direct threat to ISS operations.
For russia, however, the situation is much more serious. Following the Ukrainian strike, Moscow will likely be left with only those Soyuz-2 launch vehicles that had already been delivered to launch sites, along with the separate Angara launch-vehicle production line at the Polet facility in Omsk. Roscosmos itself identifies production of the Angara family as one of the Khrunichev Center’s key priorities.
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