Iranian Foreign Minister Ebrahim Azizi has openly threatened Ukraine with retaliation following the strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, which was, with a high degree of probability, involved in transporting weapons and military components to russia.
Setting aside Tehran's claims that the attack was allegedly "carried out on Israel's orders in an attempt to draw Europe into the war" and "will not go unanswered," the more practical question is what means Iran could actually use to strike Ukrainian territory.
Read more: Ukraine Strikes russian Ships Carrying Iranian Military Cargo Across the Caspian Sea
Iran's arsenal includes several medium-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Ukrainian cities if launched from the country's northern regions. Among them are the Ghadr, Emad, and Sejjil, each with an estimated range of around 2,000 km. The longest-range system is Khorramshahr, which has reportedly demonstrated the ability to fly approximately 4,000 km.
The Ghadr and Emad missiles are both derived from the Shahab-3, which entered service during the late 2000s and 2010s, respectively. The Shahab-3 itself is based on North Korea's Hwasong-7, which in turn traces its origins to the Soviet R-17 Elbrus (Scud-B) ballistic missile.
Both the Ghadr and Emad are single-stage, liquid-fueled missiles equipped with a separating reentry vehicle carrying a warhead weighing approximately 750 kg. Their launch weight is estimated at around 19 tonnes, with an overall length of 16.6 meters.
The newer Emad features a maneuverable reentry vehicle fitted with aerodynamic control surfaces, giving it a limited maneuvering capability during the terminal phase. This improvement came at the cost of some range. For example, one of its tests in 2021 reportedly covered approximately 1,800 km.
The Sejjil, first successfully tested in 2008, represents a more advanced design. Unlike the previous missiles, it is solid-fueled, significantly reducing launch preparation time, and uses a two-stage configuration. It is also considerably larger, with a launch weight of approximately 26.6 tonnes and a length of 17.6 meters. Its warhead weighs around 700 kg in the 2,000 km-range configuration, although it can reportedly carry a payload of up to 1,500 kg when striking targets at roughly 1,000 km.
The Khorramshahr missile was first unveiled in 2017 and is widely believed to be derived from North Korea's BM-25 Musudan (Hwasong-10), itself based on the Soviet R-27 submarine-launched ballistic missile. It is a single-stage, liquid-fueled missile available in several variants. The 2,000 km version reportedly carries a warhead weighing up to 1,500 kg. The longer-range 4,000 km variant, whose existence Iran concealed for years, almost certainly achieves its greater range by carrying a substantially lighter payload.
Iran has also developed a submunition warhead for the Khorramshahr, which has already been used in attacks against Israel. Rather than a traditional unitary warhead, it deploys up to 20 submunitions over an area with a radius of roughly 8 km. Such a design is intended both to maximize damage against urban targets and to complicate missile defense interception.
From Defense Express' perspective, countering missiles such as the Ghadr, Emad, and Sejjil would generally require dedicated ballistic missile defense systems, including THAAD, Arrow-2, or more advanced interceptors. While Patriot can engage certain ballistic missiles, its capability against medium-range ballistic missiles is more limited. Actual effectiveness depends on numerous factors, including the missile's speed, trajectory, altitude, and the maneuvering characteristics of its reentry vehicle.
As for the Khorramshahr, interception becomes even more complicated if it carries a submunition payload. Whether it can be destroyed before the warhead disperses depends on the altitude at which the submunitions separate, information that remains unknown due to the missile's limited operational use. During Iranian attacks on Israel, these and other Iranian ballistic missiles were intercepted using Arrow-2, Arrow-3, while the United States also deployed THAAD and SM-3 interceptors to help defend its ally.
At the same time, Iran's inventory of medium-range ballistic missiles has been significantly depleted following its missile campaigns against Israel over the past two years. Additional losses were inflicted during Operation Epic Fury, when Israeli and U.S. strikes targeted Iranian launchers, storage facilities, missile production plants, and component manufacturing sites.
Read more: Important for Americans to Know: russia Improved Accuracy of Shahed UAVs While Iranian Ballistic Missiles Have Become More Effective, Deadlier
