The U.S. intelligence community estimates that the United States currently faces a threat from approximately 600 Chinese and 200-300 russian hypersonic missiles, including russia's 3M22 Zircon, Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, and Avangard systems.
Over the next nine years, by 2035, that threat could grow to around 4,000 Chinese hypersonic missiles, including the DF-27, and approximately 1,000 russian weapons of the same class. These projections were highlighted in a recent analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
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The report notes that U.S. intelligence evaluates threats across the entire spectrum of missile systems, including long-range air-to-air missiles.
According to those estimates, russia currently possesses between 300 and 600 long-range air-to-air missiles, likely referring to the R-33 and R-37M, while China fields roughly 1,000 such weapons. By 2035, russia's inventory could grow to around 1,000, while China's could reach 5,000.
The IISS analysis also cites U.S. intelligence projections for China's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force. Beijing is expected to increase its arsenal of land-based ICBMs from roughly 400 today to about 700 by 2035, while its submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) inventory could expand from 72 to 132 missiles over the same period.
China's stockpile of air- and sea-launched cruise missiles currently stands at around 1,000 and is projected to rise to 5,000 by 2035. These weapons are expected to be deployed aboard surface combatants, submarines, and the H-6 family of strategic bombers.
The IISS experts also point out that U.S. assessments of missile threats have historically tended to be overly pessimistic. They cite the 1998 Rumsfeld Commission, which predicted that Iran and North Korea could develop intercontinental ballistic missiles within five years, a forecast that ultimately did not materialize.
At the same time, such threat assessments are already shaping U.S. procurement and force development.
In February 2026, the Pentagon and RTX reached an agreement to increase production of SM-3 Block IIA and SM-3 Block IB missile interceptors.
In addition, the U.S. Department of Defense plans to procure up to 10,000 mass-produced ground-launched cruise missiles, 4,300 mass-produced air-launched cruise missiles, and up to 12,000 low-cost Blackbeard hypersonic missiles over the coming years.
Previously, Defense Express reported that in June 2025, U.S. officials once again raised concerns about Pakistan allegedly developing nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles, a claim that appeared highly questionable.
Ivan Kyrychevskiy, serviceman of the 413th Raid Regiment of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine and weapons expert at Defense Express.
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