Authoritative American analytical center CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) published updated calculations of anti-ballistic missile remnants for Patriot and THAAD systems, which demonstrate genuinely critical situation for U.S. armed forces.
According to report, current PAC-3 surface-to-air missile quantity for Patriot is estimated at 759-827 units. This is approximately 200 missiles less than remained as of Operation Epic Fury cessation on April 8. By CSIS's then estimate, after 39-day war American army used approximately 1,300 PAC-3 (old CRI and new MSE).
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Defense Express recalls this led to U.S. Army in April having 15-21 anti-ballistic missiles each, of which 60 units are in service.
But current figures, obtained based on CSIS-available documents and reports, as well as own analysis methodology, indicate that now one American Patriot conditionally has 13 PAC-3 anti-ballistic missiles each. Considering one launcher can have up to 6 MSE missiles, this means only 2 of 6-8 standard launchers can be fully loaded.
Overall these missile stocks decreased by approximately 2/3 compared to state as of early 2026. At the same time, current production rate of these missiles is known — 620 units for entire 2025. This means returning to last year's level requires approximately 2.5 years, provided everything produced is directed only toward replenishing American stocks and missiles are no longer used at all.
At the same time, CSIS report does not account for PAC-2 missiles, which have significantly smaller ballistic missile interception capabilities. Their known quantity is up to 400 PAC-2 units, if they were not used during combat operations against iran. But this is doubtful, as Pentagon for first time in 30 years ordered these missiles from Raytheon.
Also CSIS calculated U.S. has only 234-278 missiles left for THAAD missile defense system, which evidently was almost not used since April 2026.
Recall for threefold PAC-3 MSE production increase, American company Lockheed Martin received contract for $58.62 billion, designed for 7 years and target indicator of approximately 2,000 anti-ballistic missiles annually.
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