According to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU), the Kremlin's traditional methods of pressuring its neighbors, including economic restrictions and political interference, are becoming increasingly ineffective in Armenia.
The intelligence agency says pro-russian forces suffered a major defeat in Armenia's parliamentary elections, while Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has continued to pursue a more independent foreign policy and a stronger orientation toward the West.
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Moscow's response, according to the SZRU, was predictable. russian authorities reportedly introduced or threatened restrictions affecting Armenian exports, including agricultural products, fish, mineral water, and Armenian cognac. The measures were apparently intended to increase economic pressure on Yerevan ahead of the harvest season.
However, the strategy appears to have produced the opposite effect.
According to the SZRU, Pashinyan responded by emphasizing Armenia's right to seek alternative trading partners. He also warned that if the Eurasian Economic Union becomes paralyzed by russian policies, it could mark what he described as "the beginning of the end of the EAEU."
russia's declining influence in Armenia is also closely linked to the collapse of its credibility as a security guarantor in the South Caucasus.
For decades, Moscow used the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as one of its principal instruments of influence over both Armenia and Azerbaijan. That strategy was seriously undermined in 2023, when Azerbaijan restored control over Nagorno-Karabakh and russian peacekeepers subsequently withdrew from the region ahead of schedule.
The SZRU also points to the events of September 2022, when clashes extended into internationally recognized Armenian territory. Armenia received no direct military assistance from the russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, further damaging Moscow's reputation as a reliable ally.
According to the intelligence service, these developments contributed to a sharp decline in public trust toward russia inside Armenia.
The intelligence agency argues that Moscow is now facing a problem it did not encounter in previous decades: Armenia has alternatives.
While russia attempted to use trade restrictions as leverage, the European Union expanded economic cooperation with Yerevan and provided additional financial support through the Growth Plan for Armenia.
The SZRU assesses that Moscow's former monopoly on influence in the South Caucasus has been significantly weakened as Armenia develops broader political and economic ties with Western partners.
russia still retains several potential instruments of pressure, including energy supplies and control over important infrastructure assets.
However, the SZRU notes that Yerevan may now be prepared to challenge Moscow's position more openly. Pashinyan has reportedly suggested that any attempt by russia to increase pressure through gas prices could trigger a reassessment of issues surrounding the russian 102nd military base in Armenia and railway infrastructure operated by russian companies.
According to the intelligence service, Armenia could potentially seek compensation worth billions of dollars for the operation and maintenance of these assets.
The broader geopolitical picture is also changing rapidly.
The signing of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and the prospect of opening borders with Türkiye could further reduce Armenia's dependence on russia and weaken Moscow's traditional role as the dominant external power in the South Caucasus.
The most significant signal, however, is Yerevan's declared intention to begin the process of submitting an official application for European Union membership.
If Armenia continues along this trajectory, russia could lose one of its most important remaining political and military footholds in the South Caucasus.
According to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, the Kremlin is now facing the consequences of years of failed pressure, unreliable security guarantees, and attempts to treat Armenia primarily as a geopolitical dependency rather than an independent partner.
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