Licensed Patriot missile production establishment, for which Ukraine received U.S. agreement in principle, is in any case lengthy task. However considering Patriot can use various missile types, timeline may differ.
For example, Lockheed Martin PAC-3 MSE production cycle alone takes 24 months. Process itself has several bottlenecks — critical dependencies on key component supplies. For this missile, most critical is Boeing active radar seeker. Specifically its production capabilities prevented increasing MSE missile assembly rate in Japan from 30 to 60 annually.
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Therefore more realistic alternative is Raytheon PAC-2 GEM-T, for which ballistic missile countermeasure capability is declared. At the same time, kinetic intercept capability is not declared for it, reducing effectiveness.
Also, compared to MSE, GEM-T surface-to-air missile has approximately half the range and target engagement altitude. Overall ballistic missile intercept effectiveness is assessed 20-30% lower. Nevertheless, PAC-2 GEM-T is simpler and mastering its production may be possible faster.
The fact is PAC-2 GEM-T is result of lengthy modernization of very first 1980s Patriot missile. It uses simpler semi-active seeker, which itself emits nothing but only catches reflected signal from target illuminated by Patriot radar.
Also missile has no ultra-complex guidance and control system — Track Via Missile principle is used, where system compares data received from own radar and semi-active surface-to-air missile seeker, forming corresponding control commands transmitted to GEM-T via radio channel.
PAC-2 GEM-T has no complex lateral maneuvering system like PAC-3 MSE, as target engagement occurs through proximity warhead detonation of approximately 90 kg mass with 45-gram ready fragmentation elements. Besides simpler control system, this missile also has larger but simpler single-pulse solid-fuel engine, not dual-pulse like MSE.
These differences overall enable looking at PAC-2 GEM-T licensed production possibilities in Ukraine more optimistically than PAC-3 MSE. Ultimately Germany's GEM-T production experience at COMLOG facilities directly speaks to broad localization possibility. However worth recalling Germans needed two years to create production line, and after starting construction in 2024, first missiles should be manufactured in 2027.
At the same time, even more interesting could have been localization possibility for completely new Patriot missile, whose creation project received LTFI (Lower-Tier Future Interceptor) name. By design this was to be simple, mass, cheap missile costing under $1 million. However its creation received no financing.
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