For about a week now, the russians have been launching concentrated strikes on Kyiv using Geran-4 and Geran-5, employing a tactic of continuous launches throughout the day. These attacks involve roughly 100 long-range jet-powered strike weapons, which are still being described as drones, although their design and capabilities put them much closer to cruise missiles than to conventional UAVs.
This may create the false impression that the threat emerged recently and unexpectedly. In reality, it took the enemy a considerable amount of time to develop this capability. In particular, a Shahed-238 jet-powered drone was publicly unveiled in Iran as early as December 2023.
Read more: How Many Cluster-Warhead ATACMS Missiles Would It Take to Cover Entire Drone Port Launching russia's Geran-4 and Geran-5?
Less than a month later, in January 2024, Ukraine’s Defense Forces shot down one of the first russian jet-powered drones. Throughout 2024, the enemy also experimented with its own designs.
These weapons were initially used only in very small numbers. However, in February 2025, Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR) announced that russia was setting up production of the Geran-3. By June 2025, the russians had made a documented attempt to use a batch of jet-powered drones in an attack on Kyiv.
Overall, by the end of 2025, the number of Geran-3 drones used by the enemy remained relatively low and did not represent a particularly serious threat. Their cruising speed of 280–330 km/h also allowed them to be intercepted by high-speed interceptor drones. Eventually, this appears to have contributed to the Geran-3 being withdrawn from production.
Then, in early 2026, an image of a Ukrainian report surfaced online. It stated that the enemy had conducted test launches of the Geran-4 between October and December 2025 and planned to conduct combat trials of the Geran-5.
In January 2026, a Geran-4 equipped with an R-60 air-to-air missile appeared in the public domain. The same was true of the Geran-5, whose design bears an obvious resemblance to Iran’s Karrar. A key component of these new systems is a family of compact Chinese turbojet engines that russia imports as ostensibly civilian products, apparently with Beijing’s tacit consent.
In May 2026, HUR told the Oboronka publication that the Geran-4 and Geran-5 were already in serial production, with existing production capacity reportedly allowing for up to 500 units per month. That figure was already outdated by August. On August 12, HUR told Militarnyi that russia was producing approximately 3,000 Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones per month.
Defense Express would also like to point to a known target set by the enemy: to make jet-powered drones account for 50% of all long-range attack drones. russia’s publicly announced plan for 2026 called for the production of 60,000 long-range drones, plus another 50,000 decoys. This target was publicly disclosed in early June 2026.
In other words, there was no real surprise for Ukraine’s Defense Forces when the enemy’s jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 began appearing in significant numbers.
The transition from the first experimental prototypes to large-scale production took about 2.5 years. If measured from the establishment of domestic production, the process took roughly 1.5 years.
At the same time, it is important to understand that no air-defense system can guarantee 100% protection. russia has now adopted a tactic of concentrating its strikes, seeking to achieve its objectives through the sheer number of weapons employed.
According to statistics from the Ukrainian Air Force Command, the average interception rate for drones of all types over the past five days has been around 84%. Jet-powered drones have often accounted for more than half of the drones involved in these attacks.
Read more: Geran-5 Cruise Missile Revealed in russia for the First Time: What Is Known About Weapon Already Used Against Ukraine
