Yemen's Houthi movement has threatened to blockade Saudi shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the strategic waterway linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. The warning comes as maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains under pressure amid tensions involving Iran and the United States.
According to the Houthis, the threat is a response to what they describe as Saudi Arabia's 12-year blockade of Yemeni ports and airports, as well as a recent airstrike on Sana'a International Airport. Defence Security Asia first reported the development.
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The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints, carrying roughly 10% of global seaborne trade. It is particularly critical for Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest crude oil exporters.
The strait serves as the primary outlet for tankers loading at Saudi oil terminals on the Red Sea coast. Approximately 75% of the Kingdom's Red Sea oil exports pass through the Yanbu terminal, whose loading capacity has recently reached about 5.29 million barrels per day.
If the Houthis were to block Saudi tankers from transiting the strait, the consequences would extend well beyond Saudi Arabia. A complete halt to exports through this route could cost the Kingdom around $400 million in lost revenue per day, while also disrupting oil supplies to major Asian importers.
The principal alternative would be the Suez Canal together with Egypt's SUMED pipeline. Their combined throughput, however, is estimated at only 2-2.5 million barrels per day, well below Saudi export volumes. In addition, fully loaded Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), which transport much of Saudi Arabia's oil, cannot transit the Suez Canal.
For cargoes destined for Asia, the Suez Canal offers little relief. Tankers would instead have to sail around the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly two weeks to each voyage.
Europe would likely face less severe disruption because shipments to European markets would continue using the Suez Canal. Even so, heavier traffic and elevated security risks would almost certainly increase transportation costs.
Analysts estimate that a prolonged disruption could push Brent crude prices up by an additional $15-20 per barrel, although the ultimate market impact remains difficult to predict.
The risks would not be limited to Saudi oil tankers. Other commercial vessels could also come under attack, whether intentionally or unintentionally. Any sustained military activity in the region would significantly complicate commercial shipping through both the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
The Houthis already have experience disrupting maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which narrows to only about 20 km at its narrowest point. Their arsenal includes anti-ship missiles, uncrewed surface vessels, loitering munitions, and naval mines. Reportedly, they still operate Soviet-designed P-15 Termit anti-ship missiles and even repurposed S-75 surface-to-air missiles adapted for anti-ship missions, although most of their more modern anti-ship weapons are believed to originate from Iran.
Whether the Houthis could sustain a prolonged blockade of Saudi shipping comparable to Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz, however, remains an open question.
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