Exactly how France will fulfil its commitment to strengthen Ukraine with 16 Rafale fighters — to be transferred in 2028–2029 — remains the subject of considerable speculation. The sticking point is the order queue for these fighters, which stretches 8.5 years at current production rates, alongside Rafale's approximately three-year manufacturing cycle.
This has led Defense Express to suggest that one possible route to delivering Rafales to Ukraine within two years could be the transfer of used aircraft from France’s own Air and Space Force. French specialist media, however, write with considerable confidence that the aircraft in question will be new-build.
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In particular, Avions Légendaires states with confidence that the ordered aircraft will be in the current F4 standard — 14 single-seat and 2 two-seat variants. It also clarifies that the announced timelines refer only to the first batch of four aircraft, to be delivered between the second half of 2028 and summer 2029.
Opex360 likewise believes the aircraft will be new-build, with the only plausible source being aircraft already on order and in production. The most likely first candidate is aircraft ordered for France's own Air and Space Force.
As of end-2025, Dassault Aviation was to deliver 45 Rafales to the French Air and Space Force, of which 42 were ordered in January 2024 under Tranche 5. That order accounted for the replenishment of fleet numbers following the sale of 12 used Rafales to Croatia in 2021, with the first Tranche 5 aircraft due for delivery in 2027.
Given that France has an approved plan to expand its Air Force Rafale fleet from 117 in 2026 to 137, a more likely scenario, in Opex360's view, is a reallocation from an export contract — specifically with an unnamed Arab country.
Defense Express would note that the most plausible candidate in that context is the United Arab Emirates, which may have agreed to a modest adjustment. The UAE placed a large order for 80 new aircraft in 2021, with first deliveries expected around 2027.
If this assumption is correct, an additional factor is that Ukraine helped the UAE defend against Iranian drones — making a decision to shift delivery of just 4 of 80 ordered aircraft, i.e. 5% of the order, entirely plausible by mutual agreement of all parties. The full picture may only become clear in time.
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